<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Baltimore Orioles minor leaguers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mdfZEr0c8QqW-n1KK1SN88PZJAw=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73439793/2157825927.0.jpg">
Photo by Diamond Images via Getty Images
Kilpatrick continued a recent power outburst with his fifth home run of the year In a rare slate of Monday games, the Augusta GreenJackets got July 4th week started off with some fireworks behind the continued swell from Atlanta Braves outfield prospects Isaiah Drake and Robert Gonzalez. Elsewhere - Mitch Farris had a strong outing but ultimately took the loss for Rome.
(35-40) Mississippi Braves 5, (34-40) Biloxi Shuckers 7
Box Score
Keshawn Ogans: 3-5, .231/.284/.274
Bryson Horne, 1B: 2-4, HR, 4 RBI, .251/.304/.374
Tyler Tolve, C: 1-4, HR, .195/.256/.353
Drue Hackenberg, SP: 4 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 3.60 ERA
Rolddy Munoz, RP: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 5.30 ERA
Drue Hackenberg had a lot of trouble settling into this game, as he particularly had trouble locating his four seam fastball and both missed the zone and got hit hard when he was in it. For me that has been at the heart of most of his walk issues throughout the year, as the Braves have shifted him to working mostly four seam fastball up instead of sinker bottom half, and that is certainly an adjustment that is taking some time to work through. Hackenberg was 94-95 throughout the game and flashed a few good sliders, but overall it was one of those games where nothing, including work, was on his side. That slider was the primary pitch getting him any positive results and he’s likely an MLB pitcher purely off of that pitch’s quality, but he’ll have to refine command of his fastball and changeup or he may be in Double-A for a bit. Fastball was the focus of this game and he may be in a situation similar to others that the Braves have had really ramp up fastball usage in order to develop command, as I didn’t see as many cutters as the quality of that pitch would suggest he should throw.
Offensively the M-Braves have been surprisingly good over the past month, ranking around the middle of the Southern League in OPS over the past 30 days. A lot of that is due to Tyler Tolve, who hit another home run in this game though he did strike out twice. Tolve’s swing and miss is probably bad enough to keep him from even an MLB backup role, but I like the defense and power here in a Chadwick Tromp role where a team stashes him at Triple-A. Tolve has four home runs in his past 13 games now. Another pleasant resurgence from the lineup has been Keshawn Ogans, who had one of the worst starts of the season for any player in the system. Fortunately tides have shifted, and although there is an injured list stint in the middle of this Ogans is hitting .280 with a 14.5% strikeout rate over his past 15 games. Ogans hasn’t made any real impact contact this season, and I was expecting at least serviceable power output from him, but he is starting to at least generate high contact rates and the pull side raw power is enough to make him an MLB utility guy. Triple-A is clogged so I don’t see it happening this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a promotion even if his numbers don’t complete flip positive with the hope that a better run environment can fix his power struggles.
Swing and Misses
Drue Hackenberg - 7
Rolddy Munoz - 6
(41-33) Rome Emperors 1, (41-34) Bowling Green Hot Rods 4
Box Score
Drew Compton, 1B: 1-3, .273/.356/.403
Sabin Ceballos, 3B: 1-4, .277/.366/.388
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr., CF: 1-4, HR, RBI. .253/.330/.385
Mitch Farris, SP: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 2.50 ERA
Elison Joseph, RP: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 2.64 ERA
We love Kevin Kilpatrick home runs, and hate pretty much everything else the Emperors did in this game on offense. Kilpatrick had really become the black hole in this offense with his struggles at the top of the lineup, as for awhile the efforts for him to swing harder and chase impact contact resulted in elevated strikeout rates and no actual power. That’s shifted as he’s heated up over the past two weeks, and while history tells us this is just another Kilpatrick heater it is notable that they’ve dropped his hands in his setup a bit and shortened his bat path, which can hopefully mitigate his issues making contact on secondary pitches. Overall over his past 11 games Kilpatrick has a .256/.418/.488 line, with 10 walks to 11 strikeouts in 55 plate appearances.
Sabin Ceballos has had a few bad games and struck out twice in this one, though it is important to zoom out a bit. There has been a concerted effort — with tangible results — to have Ceballos turning on inside pitches with more ferocity. This has led to a drastic jump in his pull side power, but of course that’s coming with adjustments on the other side as well. Ceballos is being peppered more with breaking balls away and it’s testing both his contact and his eye at the plate. Ceballos’s swing is really geared to jump on the inner half, and he’s made some awkward swings and struggled whenever pitches have managed to land their secondaries on the outer half of the plate.
Mitch Farris is one of the most fun guys to watch in the system, with a strong mix of secondary offerings centered around his changeup that consistently gets whiffs against both right handed and left handed hitters. Unsurprisingly Farris has been better against lefties, but his strikeout rate has been higher against right handed batters and he got 19 swing and misses this game. I’m not sure how this profile can work at the upper levels with Farris having a 40 grade fastball at best, but he does command the zone well and have a mix of pitches that has proven it can get whiffs. Maybe he ultimately works in relief with the hope his pitches all tick up a bit, or perhaps he is one of the raw soft-tossers that can actually make it work at the back end of the rotation, but even lower level hitters do a lot of damage on his fastball at this point so it’s a bit of an awkward profile. Elison Joseph was electric out of the bullpen, and it is nice to see him put some strike-throwing together this season. He has always been the type of high-powered arm that is interesting to dream on, posting absurd strikeout and walk rates in the lower minor leagues. This season Joseph has cut his walk rate down to 10.2% from 14.4% while maintaining a 34.6% strikeout rate. I’m still not confident he projects to enough command for a major league relief role, but if he can throw this amount of strikes he does have a chance.
Swing and Misses
Mitch Farris - 19
Elison Joseph - 10
(32-43) Augusta GreenJackets 10, (31-42) Columbia Fireflies 2
Box Score
Isaiah Drake, CF: 1-4, 2B, BB, 2 RBI, .168/.230/.275
Robert Gonzalez, RF: 2-4, 2B, 2 RBI, .183/.276/.279
Cam Magee, 3B: 3-5, .217/.307/.267
Adel Dilone, SP: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 3.20 ERA
Reibyn Corona, SP: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 6.12 ERA
Augusta is now working on a three game winning streak, and they put up their first double-digit scoring game since exactly a month prior on June 1st. While the team is somewhat lacking in a real star (though Isaiah Drake is making a push) it’s gone from one with multiple black holes throughout the lineup to at least serviceable top-to-bottom. Isaiah Drake is quite clearly the player to watch here, and while there are still a lot of parts of his game to iron out he has continued to make contact at a high rate. He showed off his gap by taking a pitch into the right center field gap for a ground rule on an easy swing, and it’s pretty clear that the turnaround in contact for him is real given how long he’s sustained it. Drake has 13 strikeouts in his past 16 games, with my concern remaining how slappy his swing is. Even at this level pitchers know they can pound Drake on the outer half as he really only produces power pull side, and there is nothing that can really be done until some swing tweaks are made to unlock that part of the zone for him. He does have the raw power to do it, but it’s a step at a time sort of process and I’m satisfied with where that process is at this point. Drake can still produce pop on the inner half and his bat speed is so electric he can’t be beat on the inner half, he just hasn’t gotten those pitches very much lately.
Robert Gonzalez had two hits, including a double, at the bottom of the lineup, and has shown a sudden bit of pop to his bat with four extra base hits in his past five games. None have been cheap contact either, as he has started to get back to hitting the ball hard on the pull side like earlier in the year. Now though he is lifting the ball a bit more and the patience he’s shown on pitches out of the zone have forced pitchers to come in the zone to attack him where he does have the strength to do damage. He is a bit pull happy, preferring to try to yank and often roll over outside pitches rather than drive them in the opposite gap, and some of this is just due to his swing path flattening out on the outer half. He is a long way from where he needs to be, further away than Drake is given that his control isn’t nearly as good, but progress is progress and he has clear major league talent.
The extra day has given Augusta a bit of trouble as they only ever pitch their guys once a week, so Adel Dilone has gotten a couple of starts here and he has done fine for them. Dilone is really just filler for the organization, but he’s done fine this season overall with a 3.20 ERA. He struggled with control in this one, and when you’re a guy who sits in the upper 80’s it tough to do well when you don’t throw strikes. It’s an interesting movement profile on his cutter and slider so he might be something if he adds some velocity, but at 23 I really doubt we’ll ever see that. Albert Rivas came up from the FCL for this game and did well — four strikeouts over 3 1⁄3 scoreless, but the most interesting thing about his outing was him not wearing his own jersey. Rivas — listed as #49 — wore the 59 jersey of Rolando Gutierrez. Whether there was a number change or the jersey was left behind in Augusta is unclear, but at the very least it’s an interesting thread from a game featuring guys that aren’t really MLB pitching talent.
Swing and Misses
Adel Dilone - 6
Reibyn Corona - 5
(12-28) FCL Braves 4, (21-17) FCL Red Sox 7
Box Score
Luis Guanipa, CF: 2-4, .324/.359/.432
John Gil, SS: 2-3, 2B, BB, 2 RBI, .252/.353/.364
Justin Militello, SP: 3.1 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 11.22 ERA
(12-29) FCL Braves 0, (22-17) FCL Red Sox 8
Box Score
Mario Baez, SS: 1-3, .228/.290/.276
Douglas Glod, CF: 1-3, .228/.390/.359
Marco Patino, SP: 2.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 5.70 ERA
Two games and two losses for the FCL Braves, but at least Luis Guanipa did well. Guanipa’s playing time has been inconsistent, and the FCL Braves as a whole have not had a ton of games not rained out, but Guanipa has been much better this year than last at making contact. He has one strikeout over his past four games, though he hasn’t found much extra base power yet. John Gil has really been the star of the team, and if he isn’t a top 30 guy for you right now he should be. Gil has top level physical talent and has hit for decent power this season, and now over his past 11 games has eight walks to only four strikeouts. Gil just turned 18 in May and there are a number of older guys getting time in Augusta right now, but given Gil’s handling of rookie level pitching and his overall potential I would not be surprised to see him get a starting spot with the GreenJackets once the FCL season concludes in three weeks. That is really it for guys who might be pushing for promotion though. Mario Baez has put up good contact numbers and went 1-3 in the second game, but there has been no power to speak of so far and his walks have dipped significantly. He’s still 17 so there is no real reason for any concern yet, there is a lot of hitting potential from Baez and he needs time to add strength. Douglas Glod has hit better lately but added two more strikeouts to his total in this game. Glod is the one it probably is time to worry about. Sure a .380 BABIP and 21% walk rate have kept his on base numbers reasonable, but the dip in power production and continue whiff problems are getting to write off territory.
(5-13) DSL Braves 1, (11-8) DSL Royals Ventura 3
Box Score
Carlos Monteverde, RF: 2-3, 2B, BB, .250/.411/.339
Nixson Cueche, 3B: 2-4, BB, RBI, .224/.385/.265
Lewis Sifontes, SP: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 6.75 ERA
There is still no Juan Mateo or Juan Espinal in the DSL Braves lineup, and without those two to provide intrigue it’s slim pickings down in the Dominican complex. Carlos Monteverde went 2-3 in this game, making him the only player in the starting lineup with an OPS over .700 or a batting average of .250 or better. He an Nixson Cueche, both repeating at the level, have put up solid contact and walk numbers but really outside of those two it’s mostly high strikeout, low walk guys making up the second-lowest scoring team in the DSL.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Baltimore Orioles minor leaguers" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/mdfZEr0c8QqW-n1KK1SN88PZJAw=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73439793/2157825927.0.jpg">
Photo by Diamond Images via Getty Images
Kilpatrick continued a recent power outburst with his fifth home run of the year In a rare slate of Monday games, the Augusta GreenJackets got July 4th week started off with some fireworks behind the continued swell from Atlanta Braves outfield prospects Isaiah Drake and Robert Gonzalez. Elsewhere - Mitch Farris had a strong outing but ultimately took the loss for Rome.
(35-40) Mississippi Braves 5, (34-40) Biloxi Shuckers 7
Box Score
Keshawn Ogans: 3-5, .231/.284/.274
Bryson Horne, 1B: 2-4, HR, 4 RBI, .251/.304/.374
Tyler Tolve, C: 1-4, HR, .195/.256/.353
Drue Hackenberg, SP: 4 IP, 9 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 4 BB, 6 K, 3.60 ERA
Rolddy Munoz, RP: 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 K, 5.30 ERA
Drue Hackenberg had a lot of trouble settling into this game, as he particularly had trouble locating his four seam fastball and both missed the zone and got hit hard when he was in it. For me that has been at the heart of most of his walk issues throughout the year, as the Braves have shifted him to working mostly four seam fastball up instead of sinker bottom half, and that is certainly an adjustment that is taking some time to work through. Hackenberg was 94-95 throughout the game and flashed a few good sliders, but overall it was one of those games where nothing, including work, was on his side. That slider was the primary pitch getting him any positive results and he’s likely an MLB pitcher purely off of that pitch’s quality, but he’ll have to refine command of his fastball and changeup or he may be in Double-A for a bit. Fastball was the focus of this game and he may be in a situation similar to others that the Braves have had really ramp up fastball usage in order to develop command, as I didn’t see as many cutters as the quality of that pitch would suggest he should throw.
Offensively the M-Braves have been surprisingly good over the past month, ranking around the middle of the Southern League in OPS over the past 30 days. A lot of that is due to Tyler Tolve, who hit another home run in this game though he did strike out twice. Tolve’s swing and miss is probably bad enough to keep him from even an MLB backup role, but I like the defense and power here in a Chadwick Tromp role where a team stashes him at Triple-A. Tolve has four home runs in his past 13 games now. Another pleasant resurgence from the lineup has been Keshawn Ogans, who had one of the worst starts of the season for any player in the system. Fortunately tides have shifted, and although there is an injured list stint in the middle of this Ogans is hitting .280 with a 14.5% strikeout rate over his past 15 games. Ogans hasn’t made any real impact contact this season, and I was expecting at least serviceable power output from him, but he is starting to at least generate high contact rates and the pull side raw power is enough to make him an MLB utility guy. Triple-A is clogged so I don’t see it happening this season, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get a promotion even if his numbers don’t complete flip positive with the hope that a better run environment can fix his power struggles.
Swing and Misses
Drue Hackenberg - 7
Rolddy Munoz - 6
(41-33) Rome Emperors 1, (41-34) Bowling Green Hot Rods 4
Box Score
Drew Compton, 1B: 1-3, .273/.356/.403
Sabin Ceballos, 3B: 1-4, .277/.366/.388
Kevin Kilpatrick Jr., CF: 1-4, HR, RBI. .253/.330/.385
Mitch Farris, SP: 5.1 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 7 K, 2.50 ERA
Elison Joseph, RP: 1.2 IP, 0 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 K, 2.64 ERA
We love Kevin Kilpatrick home runs, and hate pretty much everything else the Emperors did in this game on offense. Kilpatrick had really become the black hole in this offense with his struggles at the top of the lineup, as for awhile the efforts for him to swing harder and chase impact contact resulted in elevated strikeout rates and no actual power. That’s shifted as he’s heated up over the past two weeks, and while history tells us this is just another Kilpatrick heater it is notable that they’ve dropped his hands in his setup a bit and shortened his bat path, which can hopefully mitigate his issues making contact on secondary pitches. Overall over his past 11 games Kilpatrick has a .256/.418/.488 line, with 10 walks to 11 strikeouts in 55 plate appearances.
Sabin Ceballos has had a few bad games and struck out twice in this one, though it is important to zoom out a bit. There has been a concerted effort — with tangible results — to have Ceballos turning on inside pitches with more ferocity. This has led to a drastic jump in his pull side power, but of course that’s coming with adjustments on the other side as well. Ceballos is being peppered more with breaking balls away and it’s testing both his contact and his eye at the plate. Ceballos’s swing is really geared to jump on the inner half, and he’s made some awkward swings and struggled whenever pitches have managed to land their secondaries on the outer half of the plate.
Mitch Farris is one of the most fun guys to watch in the system, with a strong mix of secondary offerings centered around his changeup that consistently gets whiffs against both right handed and left handed hitters. Unsurprisingly Farris has been better against lefties, but his strikeout rate has been higher against right handed batters and he got 19 swing and misses this game. I’m not sure how this profile can work at the upper levels with Farris having a 40 grade fastball at best, but he does command the zone well and have a mix of pitches that has proven it can get whiffs. Maybe he ultimately works in relief with the hope his pitches all tick up a bit, or perhaps he is one of the raw soft-tossers that can actually make it work at the back end of the rotation, but even lower level hitters do a lot of damage on his fastball at this point so it’s a bit of an awkward profile. Elison Joseph was electric out of the bullpen, and it is nice to see him put some strike-throwing together this season. He has always been the type of high-powered arm that is interesting to dream on, posting absurd strikeout and walk rates in the lower minor leagues. This season Joseph has cut his walk rate down to 10.2% from 14.4% while maintaining a 34.6% strikeout rate. I’m still not confident he projects to enough command for a major league relief role, but if he can throw this amount of strikes he does have a chance.
Swing and Misses
Mitch Farris - 19
Elison Joseph - 10
(32-43) Augusta GreenJackets 10, (31-42) Columbia Fireflies 2
Box Score
Isaiah Drake, CF: 1-4, 2B, BB, 2 RBI, .168/.230/.275
Robert Gonzalez, RF: 2-4, 2B, 2 RBI, .183/.276/.279
Cam Magee, 3B: 3-5, .217/.307/.267
Adel Dilone, SP: 4.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 3.20 ERA
Reibyn Corona, SP: 1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 K, 6.12 ERA
Augusta is now working on a three game winning streak, and they put up their first double-digit scoring game since exactly a month prior on June 1st. While the team is somewhat lacking in a real star (though Isaiah Drake is making a push) it’s gone from one with multiple black holes throughout the lineup to at least serviceable top-to-bottom. Isaiah Drake is quite clearly the player to watch here, and while there are still a lot of parts of his game to iron out he has continued to make contact at a high rate. He showed off his gap by taking a pitch into the right center field gap for a ground rule on an easy swing, and it’s pretty clear that the turnaround in contact for him is real given how long he’s sustained it. Drake has 13 strikeouts in his past 16 games, with my concern remaining how slappy his swing is. Even at this level pitchers know they can pound Drake on the outer half as he really only produces power pull side, and there is nothing that can really be done until some swing tweaks are made to unlock that part of the zone for him. He does have the raw power to do it, but it’s a step at a time sort of process and I’m satisfied with where that process is at this point. Drake can still produce pop on the inner half and his bat speed is so electric he can’t be beat on the inner half, he just hasn’t gotten those pitches very much lately.
Robert Gonzalez had two hits, including a double, at the bottom of the lineup, and has shown a sudden bit of pop to his bat with four extra base hits in his past five games. None have been cheap contact either, as he has started to get back to hitting the ball hard on the pull side like earlier in the year. Now though he is lifting the ball a bit more and the patience he’s shown on pitches out of the zone have forced pitchers to come in the zone to attack him where he does have the strength to do damage. He is a bit pull happy, preferring to try to yank and often roll over outside pitches rather than drive them in the opposite gap, and some of this is just due to his swing path flattening out on the outer half. He is a long way from where he needs to be, further away than Drake is given that his control isn’t nearly as good, but progress is progress and he has clear major league talent.
The extra day has given Augusta a bit of trouble as they only ever pitch their guys once a week, so Adel Dilone has gotten a couple of starts here and he has done fine for them. Dilone is really just filler for the organization, but he’s done fine this season overall with a 3.20 ERA. He struggled with control in this one, and when you’re a guy who sits in the upper 80’s it tough to do well when you don’t throw strikes. It’s an interesting movement profile on his cutter and slider so he might be something if he adds some velocity, but at 23 I really doubt we’ll ever see that. Albert Rivas came up from the FCL for this game and did well — four strikeouts over 3 1⁄3 scoreless, but the most interesting thing about his outing was him not wearing his own jersey. Rivas — listed as #49 — wore the 59 jersey of Rolando Gutierrez. Whether there was a number change or the jersey was left behind in Augusta is unclear, but at the very least it’s an interesting thread from a game featuring guys that aren’t really MLB pitching talent.
Swing and Misses
Adel Dilone - 6
Reibyn Corona - 5
(12-28) FCL Braves 4, (21-17) FCL Red Sox 7
Box Score
Luis Guanipa, CF: 2-4, .324/.359/.432
John Gil, SS: 2-3, 2B, BB, 2 RBI, .252/.353/.364
Justin Militello, SP: 3.1 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 3 K, 11.22 ERA
(12-29) FCL Braves 0, (22-17) FCL Red Sox 8
Box Score
Mario Baez, SS: 1-3, .228/.290/.276
Douglas Glod, CF: 1-3, .228/.390/.359
Marco Patino, SP: 2.2 IP, 7 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 5.70 ERA
Two games and two losses for the FCL Braves, but at least Luis Guanipa did well. Guanipa’s playing time has been inconsistent, and the FCL Braves as a whole have not had a ton of games not rained out, but Guanipa has been much better this year than last at making contact. He has one strikeout over his past four games, though he hasn’t found much extra base power yet. John Gil has really been the star of the team, and if he isn’t a top 30 guy for you right now he should be. Gil has top level physical talent and has hit for decent power this season, and now over his past 11 games has eight walks to only four strikeouts. Gil just turned 18 in May and there are a number of older guys getting time in Augusta right now, but given Gil’s handling of rookie level pitching and his overall potential I would not be surprised to see him get a starting spot with the GreenJackets once the FCL season concludes in three weeks. That is really it for guys who might be pushing for promotion though. Mario Baez has put up good contact numbers and went 1-3 in the second game, but there has been no power to speak of so far and his walks have dipped significantly. He’s still 17 so there is no real reason for any concern yet, there is a lot of hitting potential from Baez and he needs time to add strength. Douglas Glod has hit better lately but added two more strikeouts to his total in this game. Glod is the one it probably is time to worry about. Sure a .380 BABIP and 21% walk rate have kept his on base numbers reasonable, but the dip in power production and continue whiff problems are getting to write off territory.
(5-13) DSL Braves 1, (11-8) DSL Royals Ventura 3
Box Score
Carlos Monteverde, RF: 2-3, 2B, BB, .250/.411/.339
Nixson Cueche, 3B: 2-4, BB, RBI, .224/.385/.265
Lewis Sifontes, SP: 3.2 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K, 6.75 ERA
There is still no Juan Mateo or Juan Espinal in the DSL Braves lineup, and without those two to provide intrigue it’s slim pickings down in the Dominican complex. Carlos Monteverde went 2-3 in this game, making him the only player in the starting lineup with an OPS over .700 or a batting average of .250 or better. He an Nixson Cueche, both repeating at the level, have put up solid contact and walk numbers but really outside of those two it’s mostly high strikeout, low walk guys making up the second-lowest scoring team in the DSL.
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