<img alt="Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2c6ykg697GrpaSfm0MtaTlE9kqs=/0x0:4800x3200/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73438802/2159978029.0.jpg">
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
The Braves will look for a second straight series win around Independence Day After a much needed off-day on Monday, the Atlanta Braves will continue their homestand Tuesday with a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants. Atlanta enters the series with a 46-36 record and have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games. They are currently eight games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East standings, but hold a 3.5-game advantage for the first Wild Card spot.
Inconsistent offensive production has plagued Atlanta since their 19-9 start. The Braves are just 27-27 since May 1. Injuries have played a big part in that, but some of their key regulars still have yet to take off offensively. One of the things that has gone right is the rotation. Not enough has been said of how big the offseason additions of Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez have been. The bullpen has been solid as well, but they just haven’t been able to string together enough success offensively to go on a sustained run. Injuries, batted ball luck, increased drag, and flat-out poor hitting have all played a part. With the Trade Deadline now about a month away, Atlanta will no doubt be looking to add some punch for the stretch run.
The Braves expect to get A.J. Minter back in time for Tuesday’s game. Minter missed all of June due to inflammation in his hip. Atlanta optioned Daysbel Hernandez back to Gwinnett after Sunday’s game, paving the way for Minter’s return.
Outfielder Ramon Laureano has missed the last four games while dealing with a sore back. Laureano is 9-for-35 with four doubles and a homer in 11 games since joining the active roster. Without him available, Adam Duvall has moved back into an every day outfield role in right with Forrest Wall and Luke Williams platooning in left.
The Giants come into the series with a 41-44 record but just took two of three from the Dodgers. They are 5-5 over their last 10 and are 11.0 games behind Los Angeles in the NL West. The are 3.0 games back of the final Wild Card spot.
Braves World Series hero Jorge Soler is hitting .230/.311/.398 with nine home runs and a 106 wRC+ in his first season with the Giants. Their offense has been picked up by the performances of LaMont Wade Jr. and Heliot Ramos. Wade has a 161 wRC+ in 54 games. Ramos has a 149 wRC+ and has 10 homers in just 48 games. Patrick Bailey has provided great defense and solid hitting as well. The Giants actually have a number of guys hitting at least reasonably well, but have been dragged down by guys like veteran Wilmer Flores. Still, they have a 105 wRC+ overall, good for 11th in MLB, and are 12th in position player fWAR.
San Francisco has dealt with multiple injuries to its pitching staff, including offseason addition Blake Snell who is currently on the IL with a strained groin. Overall, the pitching staff ranks 22nd in fWAR, but due to some awful strand rate stuff, has the second-highest park-adjusted ERA in baseball. While Logan Webb and second-year pitcher Ryan Walker (now fully a short-stint reliever) have been great, the rest of the arms have been so-so.
Tuesday, July 2, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Hayden Birdsong (1 GS, 4.2 IP, 22.7 K%, 13.6 BB%, 5.79 ERA, 5.73 FIP)
Young right-hander Hayden Birdsong will get the start for the Giants in Tuesday’s series opener. Birdsong is San Francisco’s fifth-best prospect per Baseball America and made his major league debut on June 26 against the Cubs where he allowed three runs over 4 2/3 innings to go along with five strikeouts and three walks. His fastball averaged 96.2 mph in his debut and he also mixed in a changeup, slider and curveball. Blake Snell’s injury and a general inability to find someone to stick in the rotation have pulled Birdsong up to the majors despite just two Triple-A starts under his belt, in a canard that’s probably familiar to baseball fans all over at this point.
Reynaldo Lopez (14 GS, 79.1 IP, 25.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 1.70 ERA, 2.79 FIP)
Reynaldo Lopez will get the call for the Braves in the series opener. Lopez has dealt with a lot of traffic on the bases over his last two starts but has done a good job of minimizing the damage. He allowed four hits and tied a season high with four walks in his last start against the Cardinals but allowed just two runs in five innings. Dating back to June 13, Lopez has allowed just two runs over his past 16 innings and has 19 strikeouts and just six walks over that span.
Lopez has just one start with an ERA- above 100 this year, just three with an FIP- above 100, and only six of 14 have had an xFIP- above 100. While he’s still skating by on a crazy-low HR/FB rate, he’s doing enough things well that he’ll likely be more than fine even when it regresses.
Wednesday, July 3, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Jordan Hicks (17 GS, 85.2 IP, 20.9 K%, 9.1 BB%, 3.36 ERA, 4.15 FIP)
After spending the first part of his career as a reliever, Jordan Hicks has successfully made the move to the rotation in his first season with the Giants. San Francisco hasn’t been nearly as careful with his workload as Atlanta has been with Lopez. Wednesday’s start will be Hicks’ 18th of the season and he has already amassed 20 more innings than he did all of last season. He allowed three runs and struck out seven over five innings in his last start against the Cubs. He’s allowed 11 hits and eight runs combined over his last nine innings, and might be wearing down a bit, as he has a 12/9 K/BB ratio over his last three starts after a 64/24 K/BB ratio in the 14 outings prior.
Unlike most of his teammates, Hicks is benefiting from outpitching his peripherals to a substantial degree, with an 86 ERA- but an FIP- and xFIP- in the 100-110 range.
Chris Sale (15 GS, 93.2 IP, 32.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 2.79 ERA, 2.32 FIP)
Lefty Chris Sale will start opposite of Hicks in Wednesday’s matchup. Sale has exceeded every reasonable expectation that he had during the season’s first half. He’s healthy for the first time in several seasons and has been dominant. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season where he allowed one run and struck out a season-high 11 in seven innings against the White Sox.
Thursday, July 4, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Logan Webb (18 GS, 112.1 IP, 21.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, 3.12 ERA, 2.76 FIP)
Right-hander Logan Webb will get the start in Thursday’s series finale. Webb has been a workhorse this season and is currently tied for second in the majors in innings pitched. He’s coming off a good outing where he allowed two runs and struck out six over seven innings against the Dodgers. Webb faced the Braves in back-to-back starts last season and got BABIPed in one and struggled in the other. Prior to that, though, he had ruthlessly dominated them in four career starts.
Webb hasn’t had a start with an xFIP- above 81 since May 15, so the Braves could be in for tough sledding during this holiday matchup.
Charlie Morton (15 GS, 85.2 IP, 24.4 K%, 10.1 BB%, 3.89 ERA, 3.80 FIP)
Charlie Morton will try build off of a good outing in his last time out when he gets the start in Thursday’s finale. Morton turned in a good showing in his last start with 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Pirates. He alternated good and bad results throughout the month of June, which more or less sums up how he got to his current pitching line, which is generally average overall.
<img alt="Los Angeles Dodgers v San Francisco Giants" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2c6ykg697GrpaSfm0MtaTlE9kqs=/0x0:4800x3200/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73438802/2159978029.0.jpg">
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
The Braves will look for a second straight series win around Independence Day After a much needed off-day on Monday, the Atlanta Braves will continue their homestand Tuesday with a three-game series against the San Francisco Giants. Atlanta enters the series with a 46-36 record and have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games. They are currently eight games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East standings, but hold a 3.5-game advantage for the first Wild Card spot.
Inconsistent offensive production has plagued Atlanta since their 19-9 start. The Braves are just 27-27 since May 1. Injuries have played a big part in that, but some of their key regulars still have yet to take off offensively. One of the things that has gone right is the rotation. Not enough has been said of how big the offseason additions of Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez have been. The bullpen has been solid as well, but they just haven’t been able to string together enough success offensively to go on a sustained run. Injuries, batted ball luck, increased drag, and flat-out poor hitting have all played a part. With the Trade Deadline now about a month away, Atlanta will no doubt be looking to add some punch for the stretch run.
The Braves expect to get A.J. Minter back in time for Tuesday’s game. Minter missed all of June due to inflammation in his hip. Atlanta optioned Daysbel Hernandez back to Gwinnett after Sunday’s game, paving the way for Minter’s return.
Outfielder Ramon Laureano has missed the last four games while dealing with a sore back. Laureano is 9-for-35 with four doubles and a homer in 11 games since joining the active roster. Without him available, Adam Duvall has moved back into an every day outfield role in right with Forrest Wall and Luke Williams platooning in left.
The Giants come into the series with a 41-44 record but just took two of three from the Dodgers. They are 5-5 over their last 10 and are 11.0 games behind Los Angeles in the NL West. The are 3.0 games back of the final Wild Card spot.
Braves World Series hero Jorge Soler is hitting .230/.311/.398 with nine home runs and a 106 wRC+ in his first season with the Giants. Their offense has been picked up by the performances of LaMont Wade Jr. and Heliot Ramos. Wade has a 161 wRC+ in 54 games. Ramos has a 149 wRC+ and has 10 homers in just 48 games. Patrick Bailey has provided great defense and solid hitting as well. The Giants actually have a number of guys hitting at least reasonably well, but have been dragged down by guys like veteran Wilmer Flores. Still, they have a 105 wRC+ overall, good for 11th in MLB, and are 12th in position player fWAR.
San Francisco has dealt with multiple injuries to its pitching staff, including offseason addition Blake Snell who is currently on the IL with a strained groin. Overall, the pitching staff ranks 22nd in fWAR, but due to some awful strand rate stuff, has the second-highest park-adjusted ERA in baseball. While Logan Webb and second-year pitcher Ryan Walker (now fully a short-stint reliever) have been great, the rest of the arms have been so-so.
Tuesday, July 2, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Hayden Birdsong (1 GS, 4.2 IP, 22.7 K%, 13.6 BB%, 5.79 ERA, 5.73 FIP)
Young right-hander Hayden Birdsong will get the start for the Giants in Tuesday’s series opener. Birdsong is San Francisco’s fifth-best prospect per Baseball America and made his major league debut on June 26 against the Cubs where he allowed three runs over 4 2/3 innings to go along with five strikeouts and three walks. His fastball averaged 96.2 mph in his debut and he also mixed in a changeup, slider and curveball. Blake Snell’s injury and a general inability to find someone to stick in the rotation have pulled Birdsong up to the majors despite just two Triple-A starts under his belt, in a canard that’s probably familiar to baseball fans all over at this point.
Reynaldo Lopez (14 GS, 79.1 IP, 25.6 K%, 8.5 BB%, 1.70 ERA, 2.79 FIP)
Reynaldo Lopez will get the call for the Braves in the series opener. Lopez has dealt with a lot of traffic on the bases over his last two starts but has done a good job of minimizing the damage. He allowed four hits and tied a season high with four walks in his last start against the Cardinals but allowed just two runs in five innings. Dating back to June 13, Lopez has allowed just two runs over his past 16 innings and has 19 strikeouts and just six walks over that span.
Lopez has just one start with an ERA- above 100 this year, just three with an FIP- above 100, and only six of 14 have had an xFIP- above 100. While he’s still skating by on a crazy-low HR/FB rate, he’s doing enough things well that he’ll likely be more than fine even when it regresses.
Wednesday, July 3, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Jordan Hicks (17 GS, 85.2 IP, 20.9 K%, 9.1 BB%, 3.36 ERA, 4.15 FIP)
After spending the first part of his career as a reliever, Jordan Hicks has successfully made the move to the rotation in his first season with the Giants. San Francisco hasn’t been nearly as careful with his workload as Atlanta has been with Lopez. Wednesday’s start will be Hicks’ 18th of the season and he has already amassed 20 more innings than he did all of last season. He allowed three runs and struck out seven over five innings in his last start against the Cubs. He’s allowed 11 hits and eight runs combined over his last nine innings, and might be wearing down a bit, as he has a 12/9 K/BB ratio over his last three starts after a 64/24 K/BB ratio in the 14 outings prior.
Unlike most of his teammates, Hicks is benefiting from outpitching his peripherals to a substantial degree, with an 86 ERA- but an FIP- and xFIP- in the 100-110 range.
Chris Sale (15 GS, 93.2 IP, 32.3 K%, 4.7 BB%, 2.79 ERA, 2.32 FIP)
Lefty Chris Sale will start opposite of Hicks in Wednesday’s matchup. Sale has exceeded every reasonable expectation that he had during the season’s first half. He’s healthy for the first time in several seasons and has been dominant. He is coming off one of his best starts of the season where he allowed one run and struck out a season-high 11 in seven innings against the White Sox.
Thursday, July 4, 7:20 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Logan Webb (18 GS, 112.1 IP, 21.1 K%, 5.7 BB%, 3.12 ERA, 2.76 FIP)
Right-hander Logan Webb will get the start in Thursday’s series finale. Webb has been a workhorse this season and is currently tied for second in the majors in innings pitched. He’s coming off a good outing where he allowed two runs and struck out six over seven innings against the Dodgers. Webb faced the Braves in back-to-back starts last season and got BABIPed in one and struggled in the other. Prior to that, though, he had ruthlessly dominated them in four career starts.
Webb hasn’t had a start with an xFIP- above 81 since May 15, so the Braves could be in for tough sledding during this holiday matchup.
Charlie Morton (15 GS, 85.2 IP, 24.4 K%, 10.1 BB%, 3.89 ERA, 3.80 FIP)
Charlie Morton will try build off of a good outing in his last time out when he gets the start in Thursday’s finale. Morton turned in a good showing in his last start with 6 1/3 scoreless innings against the Pirates. He alternated good and bad results throughout the month of June, which more or less sums up how he got to his current pitching line, which is generally average overall.
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