<img alt="MLB: Game One-Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AoBN3zyG8KRCkv-1GN6tW31dIHw=/0x0:4456x2971/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73434978/usa_today_23628850.0.jpg">
Kelenic continues to improve as the season progresses. | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Jarred Kelenic is arguably exceeding expectations. Let’s take a deeper look into what he has done to improve. The Atlanta Braves made a move in the offseason that if someone claimed that they predicted, is probably lying. They traded with the Mariners to land Jarred Kelenic, who is under team control through the 2028 season.
Last year, Kelenic had a very good year before he got injured. Before he lost the battle to a water cooler on July nineteenth, 2023, he had a slash line of .252/.320/.439, which was good for a wRC+ of 110 (10.0 percent above league average). Granted, he did have a BABIP of .357 in that span, showing he would eventually come back down to earth.
After he came back, he lost his power and hit .261/.370/.283 in fifty-four plate appearances over fifteen games. This was also with a BABIP of .375 and was worth a wRC+ of 92.
Obviously, the Braves were hoping for a slash line closer to what he had before his injury. Although his BABIP is still sitting a bit high at .367 showing he could be coming back down to earth at some point, Kelenic has not disappointed. In a year where offense is down across the league, Kelenic has a slash line of .278/.320/.453, which is good for a wRC+ of 116. If the season ended today, it would be his career high.
At first, it did not look like we may be getting this type of production from him. In his first two full months with the Braves, he slashed .260/.300./397, which was a wRC+ of 95. Since then, he has stepped it up and hit .309/.352/.543 for the month of June, which is a wRC+ that is 49.0 percent better than league average.
So, what is Kelenic doing this year that is so much better than in the past?
Unfortunately, he has been a bit lucky this year in comparison to last year in terms of weighted on based average (wOBA) and expected wOBA (xwOBA). Typically, if you take the xwOBA and subtract wOBA and it is a positive number, then you have been unlucky. For example, Kelenic had an xwOBA of .333 in 2023 and a wOBA of .321. with the equation .333 - .321 = .012, you can see that it results in a positive number. In contrast, this year he has an xwOBA of .315 and a wOBA of .335. So, .315 - .335 = -.020.
To make it simple, his actual on field numbers versus his expectancy stats are showing some fortune this year. To be clear, that is not saying his xwOBA this year is bad. It’s the second best of his four year career. For reference, the league average xwOBA this season is .317.
That being said, there are areas that point to his success this year. It is not all luck. Although his strikeout rate of 29.4 percent is in the bottom 9.0 percent of MLB, it is still the second best of his career and is an improvement upon his 31.7 last season. He is walking far fewer times though. His career average walk rate is 8.8 percent and his rate this season is 5.7.
Kelenic’s xwOBA has also been steadily increasing all season long.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/aEN6nKq4Wd7jDoeRqTONrY31CjQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25510771/JKrollingxwoba.PNG">
Rolling xwOBA over last 100 PAs
Kelenic is also hitting far fewer groundballs. His career groundball rate is 41.6, but this season it is much lower at 37.4 percent. He has swapped grounders for more line drives. His career line drive rate is 24.3 percent and he is currently sitting at 29.9 percent this year. This explains his sweet-spot percentage increase to being in the top 10.0 percent of MLB.
To get even more granular, we can look at two pitches that he seems to have figured out how to hit well. Jarred Kelenic has steadily gotten better at hitting the four-seamer and the curveball as he has progressed through his career. As of right now, he is both of those pitches better than he ever has.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Mn1qRz5h0AK4fLFN4NDF0bF-xsE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25510772/JKFBCB.PNG">
four-seamer and curveball xwOBA by season
It helps that he is seeing the four-seamer much more than any other pitch. Pitchers have thrown it to him 31.7 percent of the time. No other pitch has been thrown more than 16.9 percent of the time. The curveball has only been seen 10.9 percent of the time, but that does not take away from the fact that he is hitting it much better than he has in the past.
Prior to this season, his best season against the four-seamer he had an xBA of .300 and a xSLG of .561. This season it has jumped up to .304 and .620, respectively. Granted, his on field results were a bit better against the pitch if you look at pure slash line numbers, but don’t forget offense is down this year. A large part of his success is that pitchers are not getting him to swing on a third strike using the pitch as often. In 2023, his put away percentage was 25.5 percent against the four-seamer. This season, it is much lower at 15.9 percent.
The curveball has seen a massive increase in on-field results. Last season he was hitting .176 with a slugging percentage of .236. This year, he has a .320 average and a .480 slugging. As far as XSTATS go, in 2023 he had an xBA of .273 and xSLG of .337. This year, he has an xBA of .250 and xSLG of .403. With such a massive xSLG increase, no wonder pitchers are not throwing it to him quite as often.
In summary
Jarred Kelenic is arguably exceeding expectations this season with his bat. He has decreased his groundball rate, which has resulted in more line drives. He has done this with increasing his ability to hit four-seamers and curveballs better than he has in his career. When you see four-seamers and curveballs a combined 42.6 percent of the time, it is no shocker that we see an increase in overall output.
Although his xwOBA and wOBA split suggests he has been a bit fortunate this season. His rolling xwOBA shows a steady increase as the season has progressed, suggesting that he is getting less lucky, and more on par with what his underlying numbers show.
If he keeps this up, he may continue to be the leadoff hitter come playoff time.
<img alt="MLB: Game One-Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/AoBN3zyG8KRCkv-1GN6tW31dIHw=/0x0:4456x2971/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73434978/usa_today_23628850.0.jpg">
Kelenic continues to improve as the season progresses. | Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
Jarred Kelenic is arguably exceeding expectations. Let’s take a deeper look into what he has done to improve. The Atlanta Braves made a move in the offseason that if someone claimed that they predicted, is probably lying. They traded with the Mariners to land Jarred Kelenic, who is under team control through the 2028 season.
Last year, Kelenic had a very good year before he got injured. Before he lost the battle to a water cooler on July nineteenth, 2023, he had a slash line of .252/.320/.439, which was good for a wRC+ of 110 (10.0 percent above league average). Granted, he did have a BABIP of .357 in that span, showing he would eventually come back down to earth.
After he came back, he lost his power and hit .261/.370/.283 in fifty-four plate appearances over fifteen games. This was also with a BABIP of .375 and was worth a wRC+ of 92.
Obviously, the Braves were hoping for a slash line closer to what he had before his injury. Although his BABIP is still sitting a bit high at .367 showing he could be coming back down to earth at some point, Kelenic has not disappointed. In a year where offense is down across the league, Kelenic has a slash line of .278/.320/.453, which is good for a wRC+ of 116. If the season ended today, it would be his career high.
At first, it did not look like we may be getting this type of production from him. In his first two full months with the Braves, he slashed .260/.300./397, which was a wRC+ of 95. Since then, he has stepped it up and hit .309/.352/.543 for the month of June, which is a wRC+ that is 49.0 percent better than league average.
So, what is Kelenic doing this year that is so much better than in the past?
Unfortunately, he has been a bit lucky this year in comparison to last year in terms of weighted on based average (wOBA) and expected wOBA (xwOBA). Typically, if you take the xwOBA and subtract wOBA and it is a positive number, then you have been unlucky. For example, Kelenic had an xwOBA of .333 in 2023 and a wOBA of .321. with the equation .333 - .321 = .012, you can see that it results in a positive number. In contrast, this year he has an xwOBA of .315 and a wOBA of .335. So, .315 - .335 = -.020.
To make it simple, his actual on field numbers versus his expectancy stats are showing some fortune this year. To be clear, that is not saying his xwOBA this year is bad. It’s the second best of his four year career. For reference, the league average xwOBA this season is .317.
That being said, there are areas that point to his success this year. It is not all luck. Although his strikeout rate of 29.4 percent is in the bottom 9.0 percent of MLB, it is still the second best of his career and is an improvement upon his 31.7 last season. He is walking far fewer times though. His career average walk rate is 8.8 percent and his rate this season is 5.7.
Kelenic’s xwOBA has also been steadily increasing all season long.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/aEN6nKq4Wd7jDoeRqTONrY31CjQ=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25510771/JKrollingxwoba.PNG">
Rolling xwOBA over last 100 PAs
Kelenic is also hitting far fewer groundballs. His career groundball rate is 41.6, but this season it is much lower at 37.4 percent. He has swapped grounders for more line drives. His career line drive rate is 24.3 percent and he is currently sitting at 29.9 percent this year. This explains his sweet-spot percentage increase to being in the top 10.0 percent of MLB.
To get even more granular, we can look at two pitches that he seems to have figured out how to hit well. Jarred Kelenic has steadily gotten better at hitting the four-seamer and the curveball as he has progressed through his career. As of right now, he is both of those pitches better than he ever has.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/Mn1qRz5h0AK4fLFN4NDF0bF-xsE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25510772/JKFBCB.PNG">
four-seamer and curveball xwOBA by season
It helps that he is seeing the four-seamer much more than any other pitch. Pitchers have thrown it to him 31.7 percent of the time. No other pitch has been thrown more than 16.9 percent of the time. The curveball has only been seen 10.9 percent of the time, but that does not take away from the fact that he is hitting it much better than he has in the past.
Prior to this season, his best season against the four-seamer he had an xBA of .300 and a xSLG of .561. This season it has jumped up to .304 and .620, respectively. Granted, his on field results were a bit better against the pitch if you look at pure slash line numbers, but don’t forget offense is down this year. A large part of his success is that pitchers are not getting him to swing on a third strike using the pitch as often. In 2023, his put away percentage was 25.5 percent against the four-seamer. This season, it is much lower at 15.9 percent.
The curveball has seen a massive increase in on-field results. Last season he was hitting .176 with a slugging percentage of .236. This year, he has a .320 average and a .480 slugging. As far as XSTATS go, in 2023 he had an xBA of .273 and xSLG of .337. This year, he has an xBA of .250 and xSLG of .403. With such a massive xSLG increase, no wonder pitchers are not throwing it to him quite as often.
In summary
Jarred Kelenic is arguably exceeding expectations this season with his bat. He has decreased his groundball rate, which has resulted in more line drives. He has done this with increasing his ability to hit four-seamers and curveballs better than he has in his career. When you see four-seamers and curveballs a combined 42.6 percent of the time, it is no shocker that we see an increase in overall output.
Although his xwOBA and wOBA split suggests he has been a bit fortunate this season. His rolling xwOBA shows a steady increase as the season has progressed, suggesting that he is getting less lucky, and more on par with what his underlying numbers show.
If he keeps this up, he may continue to be the leadoff hitter come playoff time.
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