<img alt="Atlanta Braves v St. Louis Cardinals - Game One" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/I9KefPH1L6F_VHtXa1mu9onFNDI=/1x0:3000x1999/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73430849/2158792391.0.jpg">
Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
The Braves couldn’t keep their streak of series wins rolling After taking a set from the Yankees in New York to push their series win streak to three, the Braves had a good chance to really rescue their June in St. Louis, but couldn’t manage to do so, suffering their third series loss of the month instead. The series was a bit of a microcosm for how the season as a whole has gone for the Braves.
Wet sock league
As has been the case here and there, the Braves hitting the ball better than their opposition simply didn’t matter. Game 1 was the most egregious: the Braves out-xwOBAed the Cardinals by over .130, but lost in part due to their huge xwOBA underperformance and the Cardinals’ overperformance. Both teams had above-average xwOBAs in Game 2, and you could argue that the Braves won that game largely because they didn’t underhit their xwOBA by as much. Both teams hit poorly in Game 3, but even though the Braves outhit the Cardinals inputs-wise again, they still lost.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/755HabmN5lLFItOZwu2tAWdnXmk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25508441/Screenshot_2024_06_27_071055.png">
For the series as a whole, the Braves had a .343 xwOBA... and a 269 wOBA. The Cardinals had a .272 xwOBA... and a .273 wOBA. Same as it ever was.
One reason why the Braves had that good run of series wins was that they weren’t underhitting their xwOBA by a ton — from June 14 through June 23, they had the league’s seventh-best xwOBA and wOBA, but that came as a result of outhitting their xwOBA by .017. For the season as a whole, they have the league’s seventh-best xwOBA but only the 13th-best wOBA, underhitting it by .014 (virtually tied for the sixth-biggest underperformance).
The lineup is simply too depleted to be at the whims of stuff like wind, drag, and so on for a sustained run of excellence. The Braves lost the series despite out-barreling the Cardinals 5-2, in part because one of their two barreled outs would’ve been a game-tying three-run homer. Still, given that this environment doesn’t seem to be going away from its wet sock-ness, the Braves might need to figure out how to barrel more than five balls in three games to give themselves more chances to swing the game.
Pitching remains great — even after adjusting for wet socks
The Braves’ FIP- and xFIP- in June are both 92; the former is seventh in MLB in that span, and the latter is fourth. They had few non-BABIP problems with the Cardinals in this series: thanks to the wet socks, both barrels hit by St. Louis became outs, and they put together a 23/7 K/BB ratio without Max Fried or Chris Sale throwing a pitch.
Reynaldo Lopez had one of his rougher outings of the year (5/4 K/BB ratio) but the Braves were able to find the offensive results needed to win that game. Spencer Schwellenbach and Bryce Elder were both really good (FIP and xFIP under 3.00) both got BABIPed and/or sequenced to some extent in losses.
As a whole, the Braves are second to the Phillies in xERA (i.e., walks, strikeouts, and contact management). They rank top three in pretty much every contact management stat and are just outside of it in strikeout rate — the walk rate being pedestrian is the only thing keeping them from the league’s best pitching staff, and that’s with Spencer Strider gone for the year.
Rotation management above all else
Though they at one point announced that Chris Sale would start the finale of this series, the Braves took the opportunity afforded to them by Tuesday’s rainout to push Reynaldo Lopez back a game and leverage the doubleheader-enabled 27th man into giving Sale and others an extra day of rest.
Sale, who will start the rainout makeup game against the White Sox on Thursday, is currently two or three starts behind most full-time starting pitchers. Lopez, who just had his start on Wednesday, is also there with 14 starts. The Braves have none of the league’s 52 starters with 16 starts so far; only Fried has 15, something done by 72 other hurlers to this point.
The Braves are likely hoping this pays dividends down the line, e.g., in the playoffs. It’s also hard to blame them, given the injury histories of the rotation and the fact that Reynaldo Lopez hasn’t started for years. Still, it remains to be seen whether the juggling will pay off in the end. Last year, the Braves safeguarded the bullpen all season only for it to be irrelevant in the NLDS. This year? Who knows what might happen in a short series?
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v St. Louis Cardinals - Game One" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/I9KefPH1L6F_VHtXa1mu9onFNDI=/1x0:3000x1999/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73430849/2158792391.0.jpg">
Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
The Braves couldn’t keep their streak of series wins rolling After taking a set from the Yankees in New York to push their series win streak to three, the Braves had a good chance to really rescue their June in St. Louis, but couldn’t manage to do so, suffering their third series loss of the month instead. The series was a bit of a microcosm for how the season as a whole has gone for the Braves.
Wet sock league
As has been the case here and there, the Braves hitting the ball better than their opposition simply didn’t matter. Game 1 was the most egregious: the Braves out-xwOBAed the Cardinals by over .130, but lost in part due to their huge xwOBA underperformance and the Cardinals’ overperformance. Both teams had above-average xwOBAs in Game 2, and you could argue that the Braves won that game largely because they didn’t underhit their xwOBA by as much. Both teams hit poorly in Game 3, but even though the Braves outhit the Cardinals inputs-wise again, they still lost.
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/755HabmN5lLFItOZwu2tAWdnXmk=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25508441/Screenshot_2024_06_27_071055.png">
For the series as a whole, the Braves had a .343 xwOBA... and a 269 wOBA. The Cardinals had a .272 xwOBA... and a .273 wOBA. Same as it ever was.
One reason why the Braves had that good run of series wins was that they weren’t underhitting their xwOBA by a ton — from June 14 through June 23, they had the league’s seventh-best xwOBA and wOBA, but that came as a result of outhitting their xwOBA by .017. For the season as a whole, they have the league’s seventh-best xwOBA but only the 13th-best wOBA, underhitting it by .014 (virtually tied for the sixth-biggest underperformance).
The lineup is simply too depleted to be at the whims of stuff like wind, drag, and so on for a sustained run of excellence. The Braves lost the series despite out-barreling the Cardinals 5-2, in part because one of their two barreled outs would’ve been a game-tying three-run homer. Still, given that this environment doesn’t seem to be going away from its wet sock-ness, the Braves might need to figure out how to barrel more than five balls in three games to give themselves more chances to swing the game.
Pitching remains great — even after adjusting for wet socks
The Braves’ FIP- and xFIP- in June are both 92; the former is seventh in MLB in that span, and the latter is fourth. They had few non-BABIP problems with the Cardinals in this series: thanks to the wet socks, both barrels hit by St. Louis became outs, and they put together a 23/7 K/BB ratio without Max Fried or Chris Sale throwing a pitch.
Reynaldo Lopez had one of his rougher outings of the year (5/4 K/BB ratio) but the Braves were able to find the offensive results needed to win that game. Spencer Schwellenbach and Bryce Elder were both really good (FIP and xFIP under 3.00) both got BABIPed and/or sequenced to some extent in losses.
As a whole, the Braves are second to the Phillies in xERA (i.e., walks, strikeouts, and contact management). They rank top three in pretty much every contact management stat and are just outside of it in strikeout rate — the walk rate being pedestrian is the only thing keeping them from the league’s best pitching staff, and that’s with Spencer Strider gone for the year.
Rotation management above all else
Though they at one point announced that Chris Sale would start the finale of this series, the Braves took the opportunity afforded to them by Tuesday’s rainout to push Reynaldo Lopez back a game and leverage the doubleheader-enabled 27th man into giving Sale and others an extra day of rest.
Sale, who will start the rainout makeup game against the White Sox on Thursday, is currently two or three starts behind most full-time starting pitchers. Lopez, who just had his start on Wednesday, is also there with 14 starts. The Braves have none of the league’s 52 starters with 16 starts so far; only Fried has 15, something done by 72 other hurlers to this point.
The Braves are likely hoping this pays dividends down the line, e.g., in the playoffs. It’s also hard to blame them, given the injury histories of the rotation and the fact that Reynaldo Lopez hasn’t started for years. Still, it remains to be seen whether the juggling will pay off in the end. Last year, the Braves safeguarded the bullpen all season only for it to be irrelevant in the NLDS. This year? Who knows what might happen in a short series?
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