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Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
Alvarez had a home run and .850 OPS for Gwinnett last week It’s getting hot in the south, and so to are some of the top prospects in the Atlanta Braves system. Nacho Alvarez had a great week in Gwinnett with another home run, along with a home run from Drake Baldwin. Isaiah Drake’s numbers in Augusta fell off, but he still showed great signs in his resurgence. Then there is the pitching, where Didier Fuentes, Lucas Braun, and Drue Hackenberg all had standout performances.
Gwinnett Stripers
Record: 35-40, 7th in IL West (15 GB)
The Stripers laid an egg in their final series of the first half, taking just one of the five games in Charlotte behind disappointing performances from both sides of the ball. Their one win came behind a nine run outburst on Saturday, heavily boosted by the performances of Nacho Alvarez and Drake Baldwin. Alvarez had a solid enough week, posting an .859 OPS overall. Alvarez snuck his third home run of the season over the left field wall in his first at bat of the week, then went on a short cold spell before a couple of multi-hit games over the weekend. No one can complain about Alvarez’s performance so far, but he is definitely starting to see some of the challenges that come along with facing Triple-A pitching. Alvarez struck out eight times last week, and after that opening game only had one extra base hit in the final five games. No one is going to complain about Alvarez’s overall performance so far, but the feeling is that his numbers will come back to earth fairly soon given the contact we’ve seen so far.
Baldwin has probably been the more impressive of the two, as he has consistently posted triple-digit exit velocities while drawing as many walks as he has strikeouts. In that nine run performance Saturday he left his mark late, turning on a ball for his third home run in his 11 games so far this year. Baldwin has shown a clear propensity for driving anything thrown on the inner half of the plate so far since his promotion, not a surprise given how his swing is geared, and there really hasn’t been a pitch type he has struggled with. Last week it was helpful for him that the Knights only have two left-handed pitchers - both relievers - though Baldwin had a single and a walk in the two matchups he had against them.
The Gwinnett bullpen has taken some hits in recent weeks, and it looks like they’ll be getting some additions with Domingo Gonzalez and Hayden Harris both being promoted to Triple-A this week. Gonzalez has been a dominant arm for Mississippi this season, with a 2.28 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 23 ⅔ innings. Gonzalez has a sinker/slider combination that is major league quality, though command throughout his career has been a major concern. This year he has taken a leap forward in his strike-throwing, and if that holds he could be a major league middle relief arm. Then there is Harris, who we have talked about plenty for his fastball-heavy approach that has done nothing but succeed. It will be interesting to see how Harris’s approach and pitch mix works against more experienced hitters, and he’s been a bit less dominant recently with five strikeouts to four walks in his last four appearances.
The Gwinnett pitching staff got a couple of strong performances out of Allan Winans and Dylan Dodd last week, and Winans in particular has had a brilliant month for the Stripers. A blister issue towards the end of May caused him some problems and led to a dip in his performance, but fully healthy he has been the team’s best pitcher and over his past three starts has 25 strikeouts to two walks and a 0.47 ERA. Dodd has been slowly rounding into form, though I’m not exactly sure at this point what their plan is for his long term role. When Hurston Waldrep was brought up Dodd moved to the bullpen for an outing where his stuff looked good and played up, but after that promotion and Waldrep subsequently hitting the injured list Dodd is back to starting. Still they haven’t had him going above around 75 pitches, so they still may not be viewing him in a starting role once some of these guys start returning to the field. Dodd got bopped for a two run home run, but was otherwise strong with his fastball averaging 93.8 mph and the sweeper he has used throughout the year taking more of a forefront to his arsenal.
Series Preview
The Stripers are going to face the Memphis Redbirds in a scorching-hot week of games at Coolray Field, and Memphis sends out a nice collection of the St. Louis Cardinals top young talent. Jordan Walker had a strong series against the Stripers last time these two faced off, and he’s hitting even better now with an .802 OPS in June. Most of Memphis’s top hitters have struggled this season - Cardinals number three Thomas Saggese has a .678 OPS, and #4 Victor Scott II has a .566 OPS - but if Walker can get going even better it becomes a dangerous lineup. First baseman and #26 prospect Luken Baker has been dominant this season with 19 home runs to lead the team and an .894 OPS.
Memphis doesn’t have a single dominant pitcher, but they run out three of the Cardinals top 30 prospects in their rotation and overall have the second-best ERA in the International League. Number eight prospect Gordon Graceffo has been the best of the group with a 3.84 ERA, and #14 Michael McGreevy (4.95 ERA) and #28 Adam Kloffenstein (3.97 ERA) add to the rotation depth that has kept Memphis in games this season.
Mississippi Braves
Record: 31-37, 3rd in SL South (8.5 GB)
With a flurry of roster moves Mississippi quickly went from the system’s most interesting group of players to by far the least talented in the system, but a couple of promotions should make them more watchable moving forward. Drue Hackenberg and Lucas Braun are both moving up to Double-A from the Emperors, and both have had mixed success throughout this season. Braun got off to a rough start but has been dominant of late and was more than ready for this jump. Hackenberg I’m a bit more skeptical on still as I really haven’t seem him reverse the command regression he has shown this season and he’s been quite inconsistent, but his deep mix of pitches plus coming off of an outing where he threw seven scoreless innings does give a great explanation for the move.
As for last week’s iteration of the team, there was not a whole lot to love. Ian Mejia will make up a solid trio of prospects in the rotation with Hackenberg and Braun, but hitters are starting to get a bit better feel for hitting Mejia of late. Mejia has allowed eight runs in 15 innings this month, with the biggest factor being his drastic increase to seven walks in that time. It’s not a huge surprise to see him hit a little bit of a cold spell, though the hope is once he can lock those finer bits of command back in he can get back closer to his early season form.
Surprisingly it was the performance of the offense last week that was the most impressive, as some of the system’s veteran players came alive in the series. None more so than Geraldo Quintero, who had two of the best performances of any M-Braves hitter this season. In Friday’s game Quintero had three extra base hits, including his third home run of the season, then on Sunday he went 5-5 and stole two bases. Quintero’s numbers this month are stellar with him hitting .288/.362/.577, though it’s fair to mention that more than half of his hits in June came in those two games.
One effect of the promotions to Baldwin and Alvarez are some of the bench guys getting a few extra games to play, with Quintero being one and Javier Valdes being another. Valdes has hit well at every stop in his career, but has lost a ton of playing time and was struggling to make the best of limited at bats. He finally got in games last week and did well with a couple of home runs, and he’s a guy that while he may not necessarily have a good defensive home definitely is one of the better hitters on the roster. It was a rough week for Cal Conley as he only had four hits, but I thought he looked better than that overall as he was hitting the ball hard with some regularity.
Series Preview
Mississippi starts off the second half against the first half winning Montgomery Biscuits, and #14 overall prospect Carson Williams. Williams is the Tampa Bay Rays second-ranked prospect and he has been nothing short of dominant for the Biscuits this season with a .920 OPS and 11 home runs. Chandler Simpson tormented Mississippi with 10 hits and five stolen bases in their earlier matchup, and the Rays #11 prospect has continued to do much the same to the rest of the Southern League. Simpson has a .417 on base percentage for the Biscuits and 21 stolen bases in just 24 games. That stolen base total already puts him in the top 10 for the league, and his 52 stolen bases across two levels is by far the highest total in Minor League Baseball. #16 Rays prospect Ian Seymour has been arguably the Southern League’s best pitcher this season, with a 1.97 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 77 2⁄3 innings. Seymour is in line to pitch Friday’s game, where he will miss the M-Braves new big three and face off against Luis De Avila.
Rome Emperors
Record: 38-29, 2-1 2nd half, t-1st in SAL South
There is a new champion of the South Atlantic League South Division in the first half, and it is the Rome Emperors. Other than the post-clinch hangover game it was a series of tight battles last week between Rome and Greenville, with the Emperors coming out on top of four of them. Adam Zebrowski hit a walk-off home run in the first game of the week for the only run in a 1-0 win, then a key two-run single from Ethan Workinger on Tuesday gave Rome the lift they needed to clinch the division.
Overall the offense had a pretty poor week of play, though there were a handful of solid performances mixed in. Sabin Ceballos was the best of the group on the offensive end, and hit a towering home run in Saturday’s game though he was later ejected from the game. Ceballos is now 10-30 in his last eight games at the plate, though after a hot month of May his numbers have taken a major dip in June. EJ Exposito has also seen his numbers fall off, but he was making a lot of contact last week and had four doubles. Exposito seems to be hitting the ball hard, but not often finding gaps and he’s gotten a bit too aggressive at the plate and has seen his walk rate fall off of a cliff. Drew Compton seems to be figuring things out as well. He started off rough at High-A, but had multi-hit games in his final three games last week and overall has a .333 OBP and a sub-20% strikeout rate.
Lucas Braun had his worst game in the past few months with six runs allowed, but overall it wasn’t really a terrible start for him. A couple of hanging breaking balls and a mix of bad luck doomed his start, but he still had nine strikeouts and no walks over 5 1⁄3 innings. Braun has been Rome’s best pitcher since Owen Murphy went down with his elbow injury, and it will be interesting to see who comes up to replace him and Hackenberg in the rotation. Drue Hackenberg didn’t allow a run over seven innings, and like always Hackenberg is dominant at this level when he throws strikes. His sinker forced weak contact and his slider is one of the better pitches in the system, but overall he really hasn’t commanded any of his pitches all that well. He allowed only one walk in seven innings last week, but hit three batters. That’s been something of a problem for Hackenberg this season as he has 10 hit batters in 59 1⁄3 innings.
Jhancarlos Lara was dominant in his first inning, striking out two batters and looking every bit like the pitcher from last season. Then he lost his release point and the rest of his outing was a battle to keep the ball in the strike zone. Lara’s strike throwing has regressed tremendously this season, though the further he gets away from his earlier injury the better it has been. Over his past three outings he has six walks, one hit batter, and 16 strikeouts in 12 2⁄3 innings pitched after having 16 walks, four hit batters, and 18 strikeouts in his first 17 innings. All of the strike-throwing for every pitcher in the system apparently went to Luis Vargas, who is on some kind of run lately. He’s allowed only one walk while striking out 18 batters in 16 2⁄3 innings at High-A, and his progression this year has been astonishing. Vargas did get into some trouble in this past game as he was leaving his fastball a bit too much over the plate and Greenville sat on it early, but he made some adjustments throughout the game and his slider did great work throughout his final 4 1⁄3 innings. Riley Frey has been dominant between Rome and Augusta with a 1.82 ERA overall, and left handed hitters in particular struggle to pick up his low and wide release point. Lefties have an OPS of just .379 this season against Frey.
Series Preview
Rome will be the road team this week, heading up to Winston-Salem to face the Dash and the best the White Sox organization has to offer. Well, maybe not the BEST the White Sox have to offer, as the Dash have only three of Baseball America’s top 30 White Sox prospects on the roster. None have done particularly well either, with #7 prospect Samuel Zavala being the best of the trio. The 19 year old Zavala hasn’t been awful by any means — he has a 97 wRC+ with a 20% strikeout rate and 16% walk rate — he just hasn’t had much batted ball luck with a .228 BABIP. Zavala is on a hot streak of late, however, with more walks than strikeouts and a 146 wRC+ since the start of the last series against Rome on June 5th.
Peyton Pallette has been rough this season, though he has mostly escaped major damage against the Emperors. In their two matchups Pallette has allowed four runs over 8 2⁄3 innings, though he has five walks and only five strikeouts in those games. Pallette is coming off of two awful starts since the last time he faced off against Rome, totaling 10 runs allowed in 4 1⁄3 innings. #19 prospect Tanner McDougal has solid stuff and has used it to strike out 28.2% of High-A hitters, though he has a walk rate of 14.4%. McDougal has a 4.50 ERA against the Emperors this season, but that doesn’t exactly reflect his dominance as in both outings against Rome he had a similar line in which he went five innings, struck out nine batters, and walked only one. Both of those games are his two highest strikeout totals this season.
Augusta GreenJackets
Record: 28-40, 1-2 2nd Half, t-2nd in CAR South (1.0 GB)
This is one of the better pitching staffs to come through this level in a long time, and probably the worst offense as it is really rough going out there for the GreenJackets hitters. Two players really stand out as being good recently, and we’ll start with Will Verdung. Verdung was a 13th round pick last year and a guy who we really thought would have no problem at Single-A, but he got off to a horrible start and had a .567 OPS by the end of May. He has been an asbolute force in June, however, with 14 walks to only nine strikeouts and a .462 on base percentage. Verdung being an older player who is limited positionally this isn’t a huge surprise and he needs to find some power to really be a top 30 guy, but this is still a massive turnaround after a horrid start. Last week Verdung drew six walks and had seven hits, and was really the only player who consistently reached base.
Isaiah Drake had a bad week statistically, with a .541 OPS and only one extra base hit. Drake wasn’t driving the ball quite as hard as he had been the prior couple of weeks and wasn’t finding as many gaps as a result, but I’m not really complaining about what I saw. Drake hit a lot of line drives and more importantly only struck out twice in 19 plate appearances. Drake has a .752 OPS this month, and even that is weighed down by a bad first week. Seeing his progression with contact has been astonishing and unlike any turnaround I’ve seen midseason. Unfortunately Drake was also pulled from Sunday’s game after one at bat, and while there was no injury apparent on stream it will be important to monitor his status in the next few games.
On to the pitching staff, the real question is who gets the bump to High-A because there are a few worthy candidates and likely at least one makes the move. The safest bet would be Cade Kuehler, who once again had a solid start and is the GreenJackets most consistent starter. Kuehler had five strikeouts and allowed one run over five innings, and the mechanical adjustments have improved his command and strike-throwing tremendously, although I really think his pure stuff has taken a step back in 2024. Adam Maier could be a candidate to move up and it seems his fastball velocity has climbed a bit his past couple of starts, but the Braves may also choose to be patient with him after such a long layoff.
As for the guys I don’t think will be promoted soon, there is a ton of youth in this pitching rotation. Jeremy Reyes had a rough debut the week before last, but he was significantly better last week and struck out five batters while allowing only one run. Against a righty-heavy lineup Reyes’s slider was a weapon. though he had some spells where he left everything in the middle of the plate and was getting hit hard. Garrett Baumann reversed a trend of poor starts with a great outing, striking out six batters over five innings. Baumann’s defense didn’t help him much and he allowed two unearned runs in his final inning. but he has had a great age 19 season overall. The best pitcher in this rotation, both last week and all season, has been Didier Fuentes. Fuentes turned 19 last Sunday, and his first start as a 19 year old was a dominant performance in which he struck out seven batters over six innings. Fuentes has had more strikeouts than innings pitched in seven straight starts (with a five inning, three strikeout relief performance in the middle) and his progression this season makes him a clear top 20 guy. Fuentes’s sinker/slider combination is one of the best in the system and he changes levels with his fastball well, though we have yet to see a real significant impact with a changeup yet. Overall though Fuentes was in control last week and has been all season, with his athleticism slowly bleeding into his command grade and making him a dominant pitcher at this level.
Series Preview
The Charleston RiverDogs are typically one of the dominant teams in the Carolina League, but this season the Rays Single-A affiliate has not had many top prospects or top performances. They sit just 28-40 overall, and only have two of Tampa’s top 30 prospects by Baseball America. Adrian Santana, the Rays #7, has been terrible with a .564 OPS and no home runs in 54 games. Their top pitching prospect Santiago Suarez has been decent with 64 strikeouts to 7 walks this year, but he really fills the zone with his fastball and has had some home run troubles this season.
Charleston’s best players have been non top-30 guys, such as 19 year old Angel Mateo. Mateo leads the team with six home runs and has a .767 OPS. First baseman Blake Robertson has joined the team recently and made an impact as well, with an .879 OPS and three home runs in 20 games so far. Then there is their top starter, Gary Gill Hill, who has a 2.11 ERA and 62 strikeouts to 14 walks in 59 2⁄3 innings.
FCL Braves
Record: 9-25, 6th in FCL South (13.5 GB)
Look this team is bad just ignore the record and look at Luis Guanipa’s stat line if you want to feel happiness. The Braves are still being cautious in Guanipa’s return from injury, but he has done nothing but hit since being activated with a .965 OPS overall. He still hasn’t played in back-to-back days and likely won’t leave the FCL until he does, but both reports and performances from the complex have been stellar. John Gil had a strong week as well, and didn’t have a single strikeout all week. Add in five walks, a home run, and four stolen bases and it’s easy to see why so much excitement surrounds Gil. He’s a highly talented bat with raw power and a hit tool, and should be a top 30 guy moving forward. JR Ritchie’s rehab is in a bit of delay as he didn’t pitch at all last week, though we don’t know what work he is doing on the side or just exactly what the Braves plan for him is. Ian Anderson did make a rehab appearance on Sunday, and all reports seem to be good so far. He went three innings and struck out three batters, and so far has seven strikeouts and one run allowed across five innings.
DSL Braves
Record: 4-10, 7th in DSL West (5.5 GB)
It was an awful week for the DSL Braves as they didn’t win a game and they could not score runs. Only one player, 19 year old catcher Michael Baez, had a solid week with a .929 OPS, and everyone else was pretty much awful. Juan Espinal had the team’s lone home run, but that was his only hit and he struck out nine times in his other 10 at bats. Juan Mateo was fine with four walks and only one strikeout, but nothing fell for him as he went 1-14. Edward Cedano had a solid outing with five scoreless innings. Though he only struck out two, reports are that he is up to 99 with his fastball.
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Photo by Matthew Grimes Jr./Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
Alvarez had a home run and .850 OPS for Gwinnett last week It’s getting hot in the south, and so to are some of the top prospects in the Atlanta Braves system. Nacho Alvarez had a great week in Gwinnett with another home run, along with a home run from Drake Baldwin. Isaiah Drake’s numbers in Augusta fell off, but he still showed great signs in his resurgence. Then there is the pitching, where Didier Fuentes, Lucas Braun, and Drue Hackenberg all had standout performances.
Gwinnett Stripers
Record: 35-40, 7th in IL West (15 GB)
The Stripers laid an egg in their final series of the first half, taking just one of the five games in Charlotte behind disappointing performances from both sides of the ball. Their one win came behind a nine run outburst on Saturday, heavily boosted by the performances of Nacho Alvarez and Drake Baldwin. Alvarez had a solid enough week, posting an .859 OPS overall. Alvarez snuck his third home run of the season over the left field wall in his first at bat of the week, then went on a short cold spell before a couple of multi-hit games over the weekend. No one can complain about Alvarez’s performance so far, but he is definitely starting to see some of the challenges that come along with facing Triple-A pitching. Alvarez struck out eight times last week, and after that opening game only had one extra base hit in the final five games. No one is going to complain about Alvarez’s overall performance so far, but the feeling is that his numbers will come back to earth fairly soon given the contact we’ve seen so far.
Baldwin has probably been the more impressive of the two, as he has consistently posted triple-digit exit velocities while drawing as many walks as he has strikeouts. In that nine run performance Saturday he left his mark late, turning on a ball for his third home run in his 11 games so far this year. Baldwin has shown a clear propensity for driving anything thrown on the inner half of the plate so far since his promotion, not a surprise given how his swing is geared, and there really hasn’t been a pitch type he has struggled with. Last week it was helpful for him that the Knights only have two left-handed pitchers - both relievers - though Baldwin had a single and a walk in the two matchups he had against them.
The Gwinnett bullpen has taken some hits in recent weeks, and it looks like they’ll be getting some additions with Domingo Gonzalez and Hayden Harris both being promoted to Triple-A this week. Gonzalez has been a dominant arm for Mississippi this season, with a 2.28 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 23 ⅔ innings. Gonzalez has a sinker/slider combination that is major league quality, though command throughout his career has been a major concern. This year he has taken a leap forward in his strike-throwing, and if that holds he could be a major league middle relief arm. Then there is Harris, who we have talked about plenty for his fastball-heavy approach that has done nothing but succeed. It will be interesting to see how Harris’s approach and pitch mix works against more experienced hitters, and he’s been a bit less dominant recently with five strikeouts to four walks in his last four appearances.
The Gwinnett pitching staff got a couple of strong performances out of Allan Winans and Dylan Dodd last week, and Winans in particular has had a brilliant month for the Stripers. A blister issue towards the end of May caused him some problems and led to a dip in his performance, but fully healthy he has been the team’s best pitcher and over his past three starts has 25 strikeouts to two walks and a 0.47 ERA. Dodd has been slowly rounding into form, though I’m not exactly sure at this point what their plan is for his long term role. When Hurston Waldrep was brought up Dodd moved to the bullpen for an outing where his stuff looked good and played up, but after that promotion and Waldrep subsequently hitting the injured list Dodd is back to starting. Still they haven’t had him going above around 75 pitches, so they still may not be viewing him in a starting role once some of these guys start returning to the field. Dodd got bopped for a two run home run, but was otherwise strong with his fastball averaging 93.8 mph and the sweeper he has used throughout the year taking more of a forefront to his arsenal.
Series Preview
The Stripers are going to face the Memphis Redbirds in a scorching-hot week of games at Coolray Field, and Memphis sends out a nice collection of the St. Louis Cardinals top young talent. Jordan Walker had a strong series against the Stripers last time these two faced off, and he’s hitting even better now with an .802 OPS in June. Most of Memphis’s top hitters have struggled this season - Cardinals number three Thomas Saggese has a .678 OPS, and #4 Victor Scott II has a .566 OPS - but if Walker can get going even better it becomes a dangerous lineup. First baseman and #26 prospect Luken Baker has been dominant this season with 19 home runs to lead the team and an .894 OPS.
Memphis doesn’t have a single dominant pitcher, but they run out three of the Cardinals top 30 prospects in their rotation and overall have the second-best ERA in the International League. Number eight prospect Gordon Graceffo has been the best of the group with a 3.84 ERA, and #14 Michael McGreevy (4.95 ERA) and #28 Adam Kloffenstein (3.97 ERA) add to the rotation depth that has kept Memphis in games this season.
Mississippi Braves
Record: 31-37, 3rd in SL South (8.5 GB)
With a flurry of roster moves Mississippi quickly went from the system’s most interesting group of players to by far the least talented in the system, but a couple of promotions should make them more watchable moving forward. Drue Hackenberg and Lucas Braun are both moving up to Double-A from the Emperors, and both have had mixed success throughout this season. Braun got off to a rough start but has been dominant of late and was more than ready for this jump. Hackenberg I’m a bit more skeptical on still as I really haven’t seem him reverse the command regression he has shown this season and he’s been quite inconsistent, but his deep mix of pitches plus coming off of an outing where he threw seven scoreless innings does give a great explanation for the move.
As for last week’s iteration of the team, there was not a whole lot to love. Ian Mejia will make up a solid trio of prospects in the rotation with Hackenberg and Braun, but hitters are starting to get a bit better feel for hitting Mejia of late. Mejia has allowed eight runs in 15 innings this month, with the biggest factor being his drastic increase to seven walks in that time. It’s not a huge surprise to see him hit a little bit of a cold spell, though the hope is once he can lock those finer bits of command back in he can get back closer to his early season form.
Surprisingly it was the performance of the offense last week that was the most impressive, as some of the system’s veteran players came alive in the series. None more so than Geraldo Quintero, who had two of the best performances of any M-Braves hitter this season. In Friday’s game Quintero had three extra base hits, including his third home run of the season, then on Sunday he went 5-5 and stole two bases. Quintero’s numbers this month are stellar with him hitting .288/.362/.577, though it’s fair to mention that more than half of his hits in June came in those two games.
One effect of the promotions to Baldwin and Alvarez are some of the bench guys getting a few extra games to play, with Quintero being one and Javier Valdes being another. Valdes has hit well at every stop in his career, but has lost a ton of playing time and was struggling to make the best of limited at bats. He finally got in games last week and did well with a couple of home runs, and he’s a guy that while he may not necessarily have a good defensive home definitely is one of the better hitters on the roster. It was a rough week for Cal Conley as he only had four hits, but I thought he looked better than that overall as he was hitting the ball hard with some regularity.
Series Preview
Mississippi starts off the second half against the first half winning Montgomery Biscuits, and #14 overall prospect Carson Williams. Williams is the Tampa Bay Rays second-ranked prospect and he has been nothing short of dominant for the Biscuits this season with a .920 OPS and 11 home runs. Chandler Simpson tormented Mississippi with 10 hits and five stolen bases in their earlier matchup, and the Rays #11 prospect has continued to do much the same to the rest of the Southern League. Simpson has a .417 on base percentage for the Biscuits and 21 stolen bases in just 24 games. That stolen base total already puts him in the top 10 for the league, and his 52 stolen bases across two levels is by far the highest total in Minor League Baseball. #16 Rays prospect Ian Seymour has been arguably the Southern League’s best pitcher this season, with a 1.97 ERA and 86 strikeouts in 77 2⁄3 innings. Seymour is in line to pitch Friday’s game, where he will miss the M-Braves new big three and face off against Luis De Avila.
Rome Emperors
Record: 38-29, 2-1 2nd half, t-1st in SAL South
There is a new champion of the South Atlantic League South Division in the first half, and it is the Rome Emperors. Other than the post-clinch hangover game it was a series of tight battles last week between Rome and Greenville, with the Emperors coming out on top of four of them. Adam Zebrowski hit a walk-off home run in the first game of the week for the only run in a 1-0 win, then a key two-run single from Ethan Workinger on Tuesday gave Rome the lift they needed to clinch the division.
Overall the offense had a pretty poor week of play, though there were a handful of solid performances mixed in. Sabin Ceballos was the best of the group on the offensive end, and hit a towering home run in Saturday’s game though he was later ejected from the game. Ceballos is now 10-30 in his last eight games at the plate, though after a hot month of May his numbers have taken a major dip in June. EJ Exposito has also seen his numbers fall off, but he was making a lot of contact last week and had four doubles. Exposito seems to be hitting the ball hard, but not often finding gaps and he’s gotten a bit too aggressive at the plate and has seen his walk rate fall off of a cliff. Drew Compton seems to be figuring things out as well. He started off rough at High-A, but had multi-hit games in his final three games last week and overall has a .333 OBP and a sub-20% strikeout rate.
Lucas Braun had his worst game in the past few months with six runs allowed, but overall it wasn’t really a terrible start for him. A couple of hanging breaking balls and a mix of bad luck doomed his start, but he still had nine strikeouts and no walks over 5 1⁄3 innings. Braun has been Rome’s best pitcher since Owen Murphy went down with his elbow injury, and it will be interesting to see who comes up to replace him and Hackenberg in the rotation. Drue Hackenberg didn’t allow a run over seven innings, and like always Hackenberg is dominant at this level when he throws strikes. His sinker forced weak contact and his slider is one of the better pitches in the system, but overall he really hasn’t commanded any of his pitches all that well. He allowed only one walk in seven innings last week, but hit three batters. That’s been something of a problem for Hackenberg this season as he has 10 hit batters in 59 1⁄3 innings.
Jhancarlos Lara was dominant in his first inning, striking out two batters and looking every bit like the pitcher from last season. Then he lost his release point and the rest of his outing was a battle to keep the ball in the strike zone. Lara’s strike throwing has regressed tremendously this season, though the further he gets away from his earlier injury the better it has been. Over his past three outings he has six walks, one hit batter, and 16 strikeouts in 12 2⁄3 innings pitched after having 16 walks, four hit batters, and 18 strikeouts in his first 17 innings. All of the strike-throwing for every pitcher in the system apparently went to Luis Vargas, who is on some kind of run lately. He’s allowed only one walk while striking out 18 batters in 16 2⁄3 innings at High-A, and his progression this year has been astonishing. Vargas did get into some trouble in this past game as he was leaving his fastball a bit too much over the plate and Greenville sat on it early, but he made some adjustments throughout the game and his slider did great work throughout his final 4 1⁄3 innings. Riley Frey has been dominant between Rome and Augusta with a 1.82 ERA overall, and left handed hitters in particular struggle to pick up his low and wide release point. Lefties have an OPS of just .379 this season against Frey.
Series Preview
Rome will be the road team this week, heading up to Winston-Salem to face the Dash and the best the White Sox organization has to offer. Well, maybe not the BEST the White Sox have to offer, as the Dash have only three of Baseball America’s top 30 White Sox prospects on the roster. None have done particularly well either, with #7 prospect Samuel Zavala being the best of the trio. The 19 year old Zavala hasn’t been awful by any means — he has a 97 wRC+ with a 20% strikeout rate and 16% walk rate — he just hasn’t had much batted ball luck with a .228 BABIP. Zavala is on a hot streak of late, however, with more walks than strikeouts and a 146 wRC+ since the start of the last series against Rome on June 5th.
Peyton Pallette has been rough this season, though he has mostly escaped major damage against the Emperors. In their two matchups Pallette has allowed four runs over 8 2⁄3 innings, though he has five walks and only five strikeouts in those games. Pallette is coming off of two awful starts since the last time he faced off against Rome, totaling 10 runs allowed in 4 1⁄3 innings. #19 prospect Tanner McDougal has solid stuff and has used it to strike out 28.2% of High-A hitters, though he has a walk rate of 14.4%. McDougal has a 4.50 ERA against the Emperors this season, but that doesn’t exactly reflect his dominance as in both outings against Rome he had a similar line in which he went five innings, struck out nine batters, and walked only one. Both of those games are his two highest strikeout totals this season.
Augusta GreenJackets
Record: 28-40, 1-2 2nd Half, t-2nd in CAR South (1.0 GB)
This is one of the better pitching staffs to come through this level in a long time, and probably the worst offense as it is really rough going out there for the GreenJackets hitters. Two players really stand out as being good recently, and we’ll start with Will Verdung. Verdung was a 13th round pick last year and a guy who we really thought would have no problem at Single-A, but he got off to a horrible start and had a .567 OPS by the end of May. He has been an asbolute force in June, however, with 14 walks to only nine strikeouts and a .462 on base percentage. Verdung being an older player who is limited positionally this isn’t a huge surprise and he needs to find some power to really be a top 30 guy, but this is still a massive turnaround after a horrid start. Last week Verdung drew six walks and had seven hits, and was really the only player who consistently reached base.
Isaiah Drake had a bad week statistically, with a .541 OPS and only one extra base hit. Drake wasn’t driving the ball quite as hard as he had been the prior couple of weeks and wasn’t finding as many gaps as a result, but I’m not really complaining about what I saw. Drake hit a lot of line drives and more importantly only struck out twice in 19 plate appearances. Drake has a .752 OPS this month, and even that is weighed down by a bad first week. Seeing his progression with contact has been astonishing and unlike any turnaround I’ve seen midseason. Unfortunately Drake was also pulled from Sunday’s game after one at bat, and while there was no injury apparent on stream it will be important to monitor his status in the next few games.
On to the pitching staff, the real question is who gets the bump to High-A because there are a few worthy candidates and likely at least one makes the move. The safest bet would be Cade Kuehler, who once again had a solid start and is the GreenJackets most consistent starter. Kuehler had five strikeouts and allowed one run over five innings, and the mechanical adjustments have improved his command and strike-throwing tremendously, although I really think his pure stuff has taken a step back in 2024. Adam Maier could be a candidate to move up and it seems his fastball velocity has climbed a bit his past couple of starts, but the Braves may also choose to be patient with him after such a long layoff.
As for the guys I don’t think will be promoted soon, there is a ton of youth in this pitching rotation. Jeremy Reyes had a rough debut the week before last, but he was significantly better last week and struck out five batters while allowing only one run. Against a righty-heavy lineup Reyes’s slider was a weapon. though he had some spells where he left everything in the middle of the plate and was getting hit hard. Garrett Baumann reversed a trend of poor starts with a great outing, striking out six batters over five innings. Baumann’s defense didn’t help him much and he allowed two unearned runs in his final inning. but he has had a great age 19 season overall. The best pitcher in this rotation, both last week and all season, has been Didier Fuentes. Fuentes turned 19 last Sunday, and his first start as a 19 year old was a dominant performance in which he struck out seven batters over six innings. Fuentes has had more strikeouts than innings pitched in seven straight starts (with a five inning, three strikeout relief performance in the middle) and his progression this season makes him a clear top 20 guy. Fuentes’s sinker/slider combination is one of the best in the system and he changes levels with his fastball well, though we have yet to see a real significant impact with a changeup yet. Overall though Fuentes was in control last week and has been all season, with his athleticism slowly bleeding into his command grade and making him a dominant pitcher at this level.
Series Preview
The Charleston RiverDogs are typically one of the dominant teams in the Carolina League, but this season the Rays Single-A affiliate has not had many top prospects or top performances. They sit just 28-40 overall, and only have two of Tampa’s top 30 prospects by Baseball America. Adrian Santana, the Rays #7, has been terrible with a .564 OPS and no home runs in 54 games. Their top pitching prospect Santiago Suarez has been decent with 64 strikeouts to 7 walks this year, but he really fills the zone with his fastball and has had some home run troubles this season.
Charleston’s best players have been non top-30 guys, such as 19 year old Angel Mateo. Mateo leads the team with six home runs and has a .767 OPS. First baseman Blake Robertson has joined the team recently and made an impact as well, with an .879 OPS and three home runs in 20 games so far. Then there is their top starter, Gary Gill Hill, who has a 2.11 ERA and 62 strikeouts to 14 walks in 59 2⁄3 innings.
FCL Braves
Record: 9-25, 6th in FCL South (13.5 GB)
Look this team is bad just ignore the record and look at Luis Guanipa’s stat line if you want to feel happiness. The Braves are still being cautious in Guanipa’s return from injury, but he has done nothing but hit since being activated with a .965 OPS overall. He still hasn’t played in back-to-back days and likely won’t leave the FCL until he does, but both reports and performances from the complex have been stellar. John Gil had a strong week as well, and didn’t have a single strikeout all week. Add in five walks, a home run, and four stolen bases and it’s easy to see why so much excitement surrounds Gil. He’s a highly talented bat with raw power and a hit tool, and should be a top 30 guy moving forward. JR Ritchie’s rehab is in a bit of delay as he didn’t pitch at all last week, though we don’t know what work he is doing on the side or just exactly what the Braves plan for him is. Ian Anderson did make a rehab appearance on Sunday, and all reports seem to be good so far. He went three innings and struck out three batters, and so far has seven strikeouts and one run allowed across five innings.
DSL Braves
Record: 4-10, 7th in DSL West (5.5 GB)
It was an awful week for the DSL Braves as they didn’t win a game and they could not score runs. Only one player, 19 year old catcher Michael Baez, had a solid week with a .929 OPS, and everyone else was pretty much awful. Juan Espinal had the team’s lone home run, but that was his only hit and he struck out nine times in his other 10 at bats. Juan Mateo was fine with four walks and only one strikeout, but nothing fell for him as he went 1-14. Edward Cedano had a solid outing with five scoreless innings. Though he only struck out two, reports are that he is up to 99 with his fastball.
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