<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZyB2zzjMKTOGuioUrl27ZYhd46c=/0x0:7134x4756/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73420528/2156976069.0.jpg">
Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images
Who better to take on one of MLB’s best offenses than one of MLB’s best pitchers? The Braves will be in New York, taking on the sweet-swinging Yankees over the weekend, and trying to keep their own mini-roll going while giving the Bronx Bombers and their currently MLB-best record a run for its money. The series begins with a pretty fun matchup, as Chris Sale, one of MLB’s best pitchers to date, will try to solve a lineup that’s had few challenges thus far.
Sale comes into the game with 2.6 fWAR in 13 starts, and a line consisting of a 73 ERA-, 61 FIP-, and 63 xFIP- (his xERA is between his xFIP and ERA). Sale has had just two below-average starts by ERA, and just three by FIP; he hasn’t had a single start with an xFIP- over 100 to this point, which is really impressive. He also keeps climbing the pitching leaderboard — he didn’t even register among the top 30 starters by fWAR in April, but had climbed to fourth by the end of May, and currently sits at sixth because, once again, he’s either a start or two behind all five of the guys ahead of him.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have lived up to their Bronx Bombers moniker so far this season, ranking second in xwOBA, wRC+ and position player fWAR, and generally in the top five among all the Statcast contact quality metrics. Even if the bats have taken a bit of a step back in June, as they’ve only been a top ten offense rather than one of the truly best over the past three weeks, the numbers are still plenty dangerous on paper. Given that, this should be a great matchup of strength versus strength.
Sale is no stranger to the Yankees, having faced them 22 times in his career, including 12 times in New York. However, the last time he saw them was a brief start that lasted less than an inning back in July 2022; before that, he had last seen them in August 2019. His career stats against them are remarkably similar to his overall line: 3.10/2.91/2.94 in total versus 3.12/3.00/3.02 against the Yankees.
One thing that might work somewhat in Sale’s favor is that the Yankees’ lineup is really concentrated in the incredible performances of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Among their ten batters with 100 or more PAs, Judge and Soto have video game numbers, but only one other batter has an xwOBA over .350, and there are only five guys in this group (including Judge and Soto) with an xwOBA above .300, meaning that on any given day, about half their lineup is composed of guys with some really poor performances so far. Still, Sale has to find a way to not get creamed by Judge and Soto, something the rest of the league hasn’t managed at all thus far.
The Braves have not had anywhere near the offensive success the Yankees have so far (not even Marcell Ozuna’s numbers rival what Judge and Soto have done), but should still give a good battle to Carlos Rodon, who is having a much better sophomore effort in New York after a horrendous, wish-we-could-forget first season of his $162 million, six-year deal. In 2023, Rodon battled injury, made just 14 starts, lasted just 64 1⁄3 innings, and finished with -0.2 fWAR thanks to a 164/134/124 line (xERA in line with xFIP). This year, he’s been healthier and much better — not as great as his 2021-2022 run, mind, but more than fine nonetheless. Rodon will bring an 85/97/107 (xERA between FIP and xFIP) line into the game, and as indicated by said line, has really benefited from a low HR/FB that may be driven by the fact that at this point, he’s a “weak fly ball” pitcher as much as anything else. He did have a long span of eight starts where he allowed nine homers, but he’s allowed just two homers across his seven other starts, including his two most recent outings, so there we are. Some HR/FB fortune, especially in a start where Rodon has a few walks, could go a long way.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Friday, June 21, 7:05 p.m. ET
Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
TV: Nope
Streaming: Apple TV+
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Washington Nationals" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZyB2zzjMKTOGuioUrl27ZYhd46c=/0x0:7134x4756/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73420528/2156976069.0.jpg">
Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images
Who better to take on one of MLB’s best offenses than one of MLB’s best pitchers? The Braves will be in New York, taking on the sweet-swinging Yankees over the weekend, and trying to keep their own mini-roll going while giving the Bronx Bombers and their currently MLB-best record a run for its money. The series begins with a pretty fun matchup, as Chris Sale, one of MLB’s best pitchers to date, will try to solve a lineup that’s had few challenges thus far.
Sale comes into the game with 2.6 fWAR in 13 starts, and a line consisting of a 73 ERA-, 61 FIP-, and 63 xFIP- (his xERA is between his xFIP and ERA). Sale has had just two below-average starts by ERA, and just three by FIP; he hasn’t had a single start with an xFIP- over 100 to this point, which is really impressive. He also keeps climbing the pitching leaderboard — he didn’t even register among the top 30 starters by fWAR in April, but had climbed to fourth by the end of May, and currently sits at sixth because, once again, he’s either a start or two behind all five of the guys ahead of him.
Meanwhile, the Yankees have lived up to their Bronx Bombers moniker so far this season, ranking second in xwOBA, wRC+ and position player fWAR, and generally in the top five among all the Statcast contact quality metrics. Even if the bats have taken a bit of a step back in June, as they’ve only been a top ten offense rather than one of the truly best over the past three weeks, the numbers are still plenty dangerous on paper. Given that, this should be a great matchup of strength versus strength.
Sale is no stranger to the Yankees, having faced them 22 times in his career, including 12 times in New York. However, the last time he saw them was a brief start that lasted less than an inning back in July 2022; before that, he had last seen them in August 2019. His career stats against them are remarkably similar to his overall line: 3.10/2.91/2.94 in total versus 3.12/3.00/3.02 against the Yankees.
One thing that might work somewhat in Sale’s favor is that the Yankees’ lineup is really concentrated in the incredible performances of Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Among their ten batters with 100 or more PAs, Judge and Soto have video game numbers, but only one other batter has an xwOBA over .350, and there are only five guys in this group (including Judge and Soto) with an xwOBA above .300, meaning that on any given day, about half their lineup is composed of guys with some really poor performances so far. Still, Sale has to find a way to not get creamed by Judge and Soto, something the rest of the league hasn’t managed at all thus far.
The Braves have not had anywhere near the offensive success the Yankees have so far (not even Marcell Ozuna’s numbers rival what Judge and Soto have done), but should still give a good battle to Carlos Rodon, who is having a much better sophomore effort in New York after a horrendous, wish-we-could-forget first season of his $162 million, six-year deal. In 2023, Rodon battled injury, made just 14 starts, lasted just 64 1⁄3 innings, and finished with -0.2 fWAR thanks to a 164/134/124 line (xERA in line with xFIP). This year, he’s been healthier and much better — not as great as his 2021-2022 run, mind, but more than fine nonetheless. Rodon will bring an 85/97/107 (xERA between FIP and xFIP) line into the game, and as indicated by said line, has really benefited from a low HR/FB that may be driven by the fact that at this point, he’s a “weak fly ball” pitcher as much as anything else. He did have a long span of eight starts where he allowed nine homers, but he’s allowed just two homers across his seven other starts, including his two most recent outings, so there we are. Some HR/FB fortune, especially in a start where Rodon has a few walks, could go a long way.
Game Info
Game Date/Time: Friday, June 21, 7:05 p.m. ET
Location: Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY
TV: Nope
Streaming: Apple TV+
Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan
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