<img alt="Baltimore Orioles v New York Yankees" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yagvcQS2woEMxJs3R0dupsruzFA=/0x0:4979x3319/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73419171/2158349871.0.jpg">
Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images
The Braves have won six of their last seven games and will head out on the road for a three-game clash with the AL East-leading Yankees. After completing a 5-1 homestand, the Atlanta Braves will head back out on the road on Friday, where they will begin a seven-game road trip with a three-game series against the New York Yankees. The Braves took two of three from the Rays and then swept the Tigers in a three-game set to move back to 10 games over .500 at 41-31. They are currently seven games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and have a 5.5-game lead for the first Wild Card spot.
Atlanta’s offense finally started to show some signs of life during the homestand. Austin Riley homered in all three games of the series against the Rays and was 10-for-19 with seven extra-base hits over the six games at Truist Park. Sean Murphy homered twice as part of a four-hit game in Sunday’s win over Detroit. Atlanta’s pitching staff also did its job. Braves pitchers allowed just two runs in the three games against the Tigers with the bullpen tossing 10 2/3 scoreless frames.
The Yankees will come into this game with a 51-26 record that is tops in MLB. With that said, they did just lose a key series to the Orioles, who now trail them by just half a game in the AL East. They also have MLB’s best run differential, and are fourth in BaseRuns record — so maybe they’ve had a bit of luck, but they’re still pretty dominant either way. They’re barely behind the Dodgers for the league’s best team xwOBA, and are also second to them in wRC+ and position player fWAR. The offense has carried them to their league-best perch, since their pitching staff is “merely” top ten, with a pedestrian bullpen backing a top ten rotation.
If there’s one minor saving grace about facing this behemoth of a team, it’s that perhaps the Yankees are more vulnerable now than at any other time this season. They’ve lost three of their last four series, after losing just two series before this pseudo-skid. In particular, the pitching has taken a bit of a step back in recent weeks, with a 4.48 team xFIP that’s a bottom-five mark in June — and that’s before taking into account their extreme drubbing at the hands of the Orioles on Thursday.
Player-wise, well, this is a tough roster to handle. Aaron Judge has video game numbers with 5.0 fWAR on June 20, a wRC+ north of 200, while underhitting his xwOBA a bit. He’s neck and neck with Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson for the fWAR lead; a personal rivalry to mirror their hotly-contested division race. Juan Soto’s numbers are only a smidge below Judge’s. Anthony Volpe and Jose Trevino are providing a ton of defensive value and outhitting their xwOBAs enough to make up for some pretty sad inputs. After that, and some okay play from Alex Verdugo and Giancarlo Stanton, though, their roster really dries up offensively — but that’s just fine when Judge and Soto are bashing the league into pieces.
Pitching-wise, things are more solid than great, with a decent front four in the rotation, and some pretty good bullpen performances from Clay Holmes, Luke Weaver, and even former Brave Michael Tonkin.
This should be one of the tougher tests the Braves face this season, especially on the road.
Friday, June 21, 7:05 p.m. ET (Apple TV+)
Chris Sale (13 GS, 81.2 IP, 30.7 K%, 4.0 BB%, 2.98 ERA, 2.34 FIP)
Left-hander Chris Sale will get the start for the Braves in Friday’s series opener. Sale has been everything the Braves could have hoped for and then some over his first 13 starts. He allowed two runs and struck out seven over seven innings in his last start against the Rays. Since allowing eight runs in four innings against Oakland, he has allowed just four runs combined over his next 14 innings. He’s tied for fourth in MLB among starters with 2.6 fWAR.
Sale is no stranger to the Yankees, but hasn’t faced them since the 2022 season.
Carlos Rodon (15 GS, 85.0 IP, 23.1 K%, 6.6 BB%, 3.28 ERA, 3.98 FIP)
After flopping in his first season in pinstripes, Carlos Rodon has bounced back nicely for the Yankees in 2024. He might not be quite as dominant as his 2021 or 2022 iteration, but he’s been healthy enough to take the ball 15 times and has given New York a chance to win on most nights. He struggled in his last start, though, allowing five runs in five innings, with a 7/3 K/BB ratio, to the Red Sox. His three walks in that outing which snapped a stretch where he had issued just one walk over his last three starts combined.
After a stretch where he allowed nine longballs in eight starts, Rodon has kept the ball in the ballpark in his last two tries. He has a really low HR/FB ratio, especially considering his home park, but gets enough weak fly balls that if anyone can outpitch his xFIP, maybe it’s him.
Rodon faced the Braves twice in 2022 while a member of the Giants and was dominant allowing one earned run to go along with 18 strikeouts in 12 innings.
Saturday, June 22, 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
Charlie Morton (13 GS, 73.2 IP, 24.8 K%, 9.8 BB%, 3.91 ERA, 3.73 FIP)
Right-hander Charlie Morton will make his 14th start of the season for the Braves in Saturday’s matchup. Morton was sharp in his last outing, allowing one run while tying his season-high with eight strikeouts in six innings against the Rays. Through three starts in June, Morton has a 2.65 ERA and a 3.09 FIP, but a 4.25 xFIP.
Morton faced the Yankees once in 2023 where he struck out 10 over six scoreless innings, in part of a really dark stretch for the Bombers.
Marcus Stroman (15 GS, 84.2 IP, 17.1 K%, 10.6 BB%, 3.08 ERA, 4.76 FIP)
Righty Marcus Stroman will matchup opposite of Morton in Saturday’s game. Stroman has put up good numbers to start the season but has walked the tight rope, as his 3.08 ERA is more than a run and a half lower than his 4.76 FIP. He was tagged for four runs over five innings in his last start against the Red Sox and has allowed nine earned runs over his last 15 1/3 innings. You might want to say that’s a sign that his ERA is creeping up towards his peripherals, but his peripherals have been even worse in that stretch, so that’s not quite what’s happening.
Sunday, June 23, 1:35 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Max Fried (14 GS, 84.0 IP, 22.6 K%, 8.0 BB%, 3.11 ERA, 3.34 FIP)
Max Fried will take his turn for the Braves in Sunday’s series finale. Fried ran up a high pitch count thanks in part to three walks, but allowed just one run over 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Tigers. He has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.46 FIP in 53 innings away from Truist Park this season. He’s faced the Yankees twice in his career so far, allowing three runs in 12 career innings.
Nester Cortes (16 GS, 93.2 IP, 22.9 K%, 4.8 BB%, 3.36 ERA, 3.58 FIP)
Nester Cortes will make his 17th start of the season for the Yankees in Sunday’s game. Cortes has bounced back successfully after missing most of the 2023 season due to injury. He’s coming off of a good start against the Orioles where he struck out six over five scoreless innings. Cortes has allowed just two runs over his last 13 innings, though he had a 2/2 K/BB ratio in one of them — his starts tend to be either really good or kind of mediocre from a peripherals perspective. Sunday will be Cortes’ first career start against Atlanta.
<img alt="Baltimore Orioles v New York Yankees" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/yagvcQS2woEMxJs3R0dupsruzFA=/0x0:4979x3319/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73419171/2158349871.0.jpg">
Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images
The Braves have won six of their last seven games and will head out on the road for a three-game clash with the AL East-leading Yankees. After completing a 5-1 homestand, the Atlanta Braves will head back out on the road on Friday, where they will begin a seven-game road trip with a three-game series against the New York Yankees. The Braves took two of three from the Rays and then swept the Tigers in a three-game set to move back to 10 games over .500 at 41-31. They are currently seven games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and have a 5.5-game lead for the first Wild Card spot.
Atlanta’s offense finally started to show some signs of life during the homestand. Austin Riley homered in all three games of the series against the Rays and was 10-for-19 with seven extra-base hits over the six games at Truist Park. Sean Murphy homered twice as part of a four-hit game in Sunday’s win over Detroit. Atlanta’s pitching staff also did its job. Braves pitchers allowed just two runs in the three games against the Tigers with the bullpen tossing 10 2/3 scoreless frames.
The Yankees will come into this game with a 51-26 record that is tops in MLB. With that said, they did just lose a key series to the Orioles, who now trail them by just half a game in the AL East. They also have MLB’s best run differential, and are fourth in BaseRuns record — so maybe they’ve had a bit of luck, but they’re still pretty dominant either way. They’re barely behind the Dodgers for the league’s best team xwOBA, and are also second to them in wRC+ and position player fWAR. The offense has carried them to their league-best perch, since their pitching staff is “merely” top ten, with a pedestrian bullpen backing a top ten rotation.
If there’s one minor saving grace about facing this behemoth of a team, it’s that perhaps the Yankees are more vulnerable now than at any other time this season. They’ve lost three of their last four series, after losing just two series before this pseudo-skid. In particular, the pitching has taken a bit of a step back in recent weeks, with a 4.48 team xFIP that’s a bottom-five mark in June — and that’s before taking into account their extreme drubbing at the hands of the Orioles on Thursday.
Player-wise, well, this is a tough roster to handle. Aaron Judge has video game numbers with 5.0 fWAR on June 20, a wRC+ north of 200, while underhitting his xwOBA a bit. He’s neck and neck with Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson for the fWAR lead; a personal rivalry to mirror their hotly-contested division race. Juan Soto’s numbers are only a smidge below Judge’s. Anthony Volpe and Jose Trevino are providing a ton of defensive value and outhitting their xwOBAs enough to make up for some pretty sad inputs. After that, and some okay play from Alex Verdugo and Giancarlo Stanton, though, their roster really dries up offensively — but that’s just fine when Judge and Soto are bashing the league into pieces.
Pitching-wise, things are more solid than great, with a decent front four in the rotation, and some pretty good bullpen performances from Clay Holmes, Luke Weaver, and even former Brave Michael Tonkin.
This should be one of the tougher tests the Braves face this season, especially on the road.
Friday, June 21, 7:05 p.m. ET (Apple TV+)
Chris Sale (13 GS, 81.2 IP, 30.7 K%, 4.0 BB%, 2.98 ERA, 2.34 FIP)
Left-hander Chris Sale will get the start for the Braves in Friday’s series opener. Sale has been everything the Braves could have hoped for and then some over his first 13 starts. He allowed two runs and struck out seven over seven innings in his last start against the Rays. Since allowing eight runs in four innings against Oakland, he has allowed just four runs combined over his next 14 innings. He’s tied for fourth in MLB among starters with 2.6 fWAR.
Sale is no stranger to the Yankees, but hasn’t faced them since the 2022 season.
Carlos Rodon (15 GS, 85.0 IP, 23.1 K%, 6.6 BB%, 3.28 ERA, 3.98 FIP)
After flopping in his first season in pinstripes, Carlos Rodon has bounced back nicely for the Yankees in 2024. He might not be quite as dominant as his 2021 or 2022 iteration, but he’s been healthy enough to take the ball 15 times and has given New York a chance to win on most nights. He struggled in his last start, though, allowing five runs in five innings, with a 7/3 K/BB ratio, to the Red Sox. His three walks in that outing which snapped a stretch where he had issued just one walk over his last three starts combined.
After a stretch where he allowed nine longballs in eight starts, Rodon has kept the ball in the ballpark in his last two tries. He has a really low HR/FB ratio, especially considering his home park, but gets enough weak fly balls that if anyone can outpitch his xFIP, maybe it’s him.
Rodon faced the Braves twice in 2022 while a member of the Giants and was dominant allowing one earned run to go along with 18 strikeouts in 12 innings.
Saturday, June 22, 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
Charlie Morton (13 GS, 73.2 IP, 24.8 K%, 9.8 BB%, 3.91 ERA, 3.73 FIP)
Right-hander Charlie Morton will make his 14th start of the season for the Braves in Saturday’s matchup. Morton was sharp in his last outing, allowing one run while tying his season-high with eight strikeouts in six innings against the Rays. Through three starts in June, Morton has a 2.65 ERA and a 3.09 FIP, but a 4.25 xFIP.
Morton faced the Yankees once in 2023 where he struck out 10 over six scoreless innings, in part of a really dark stretch for the Bombers.
Marcus Stroman (15 GS, 84.2 IP, 17.1 K%, 10.6 BB%, 3.08 ERA, 4.76 FIP)
Righty Marcus Stroman will matchup opposite of Morton in Saturday’s game. Stroman has put up good numbers to start the season but has walked the tight rope, as his 3.08 ERA is more than a run and a half lower than his 4.76 FIP. He was tagged for four runs over five innings in his last start against the Red Sox and has allowed nine earned runs over his last 15 1/3 innings. You might want to say that’s a sign that his ERA is creeping up towards his peripherals, but his peripherals have been even worse in that stretch, so that’s not quite what’s happening.
Sunday, June 23, 1:35 p.m. ET (Bally Sports Southeast)
Max Fried (14 GS, 84.0 IP, 22.6 K%, 8.0 BB%, 3.11 ERA, 3.34 FIP)
Max Fried will take his turn for the Braves in Sunday’s series finale. Fried ran up a high pitch count thanks in part to three walks, but allowed just one run over 5 1/3 innings in his last start against the Tigers. He has a 3.06 ERA and a 3.46 FIP in 53 innings away from Truist Park this season. He’s faced the Yankees twice in his career so far, allowing three runs in 12 career innings.
Nester Cortes (16 GS, 93.2 IP, 22.9 K%, 4.8 BB%, 3.36 ERA, 3.58 FIP)
Nester Cortes will make his 17th start of the season for the Yankees in Sunday’s game. Cortes has bounced back successfully after missing most of the 2023 season due to injury. He’s coming off of a good start against the Orioles where he struck out six over five scoreless innings. Cortes has allowed just two runs over his last 13 innings, though he had a 2/2 K/BB ratio in one of them — his starts tend to be either really good or kind of mediocre from a peripherals perspective. Sunday will be Cortes’ first career start against Atlanta.
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