<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Baltimore Orioles" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-jq2nrkw7mJQPW5D43uQzBE6E9Y=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73406487/2157486630.0.jpg">
The Braves ended their road trip on a good note, but need to do a lot more to keep it going. The Atlanta Braves grabbed a much-needed win Thursday with a 6-3 victory over the Baltimore Orioles. The win snapped a five-game losing streak, the longest skid for the Braves since the 2017 season. They will return home Friday where they will begin a six-game homestand with a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Getting back on track
Thursday’s win was a bit of a port in a storm, given a previous stretch of seven losses over their last 10 games for Atlanta. They completed their three-city road trip with a 3-6 record to fall to 36-30 for the season. They will be at least nine games out of first place in the NL East to start the weekend, pending the outcome of the Phillies game in Boston Thursday night.
The Braves still hold the top wild card spot, but at this juncture, it is more about them righting the ship and getting back on track than any specific spot in the standings. Atlanta was 19-9 at the end of April, tops in MLB. They are 17-21 since the start of May and are now 4-7 in June. The lackluster road trip dropped them below .500 on the road at 17-18. They are 19-12 at Truist Park overall, but are just 6-8 at home since May 13.
I wouldn’t say that the NL East race is over, but the Braves need to worry about themselves more than the teams they are chasing, because they’ve been playing poorly enough that it’s not reasonable to expect other teams to take a similar step back. Getting back on track offensively and trying to get back to where they were in April matters more currently than watching the standings on a daily basis in the middle of June.
The offense remains inconsistent, even in terms of inputs. In April, they had four games with a .400+ xwOBA, eight games between .350 and .400, another seven games between .310 and .350, and ten below .310 (with only two of those below .250, and only one below .200). Since then, they’ve only had three games above .400, only five games between .350 and .400, ten between .310 and .350, and a whopping 18 games below .310. When you are putting up a below-average-and-honestly-pretty-terrible set of inputs in half your games over the span of about six weeks, you get the stretch you’ve seen. What makes things worse is that the Braves are also the unluckiest team offensively since May 1, and unlike other cases, they’re unlucky because of their best-hit balls turning into outs at an absurd rate. They probably could’ve stayed as a top-tier contender with good luck instead of horrible luck, even with inconsistent hitting, but instead they’ve been dead in the water in about half their games since May 1 and don’t have any luck to lean on to make things better.
Spencer Schwellenbach takes step forward
Lost in the disappointment of Wednesday’s loss was a good pitching performance from rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach. Schwellenbach was knocked around in his last start at Fenway Park, but held a good Orioles lineup to four hits and two runs over six innings. He struck out three and still struggled to put hitters away at times, but his split-change added a new dimension. He hit 98.0 mph with his fastball and again showed a good assortment of pitches.
His tough third inning started with a sharp double from Cedric Mullins and then a 75 mph flare off the bat of Jorge Mateo. One of the two runs in the inning came on errant throw home by Matt Olson. Schwellenbach got a double play grounder to escape the jam with just two runs scoring. The game could have gotten sideways in that moment, but he was able to keep it together and turned in a career-high six innings. It was a similar effort to his first career outing by xFIP, but not marred by a game-changing blast against him the third time through.
Braves sticking with a six-man rotation for now
It was apparent when neither Hurston Waldrep or Spencer Schwellenbach were sent down after their most recent starts, but Alex Anthopoulos confirmed Wednesday that the team will use a six-man rotation for the time being. Anthopoulos told the AJC’s Justin Toscano that they are trying to be proactive and felt that this would be a good way to get ahead of fatigue. He added that he felt that the Braves’ rotation had been worn down by the time the postseason arrived in each of the past two seasons.
One of the ongoing storylines from the start of the season was how the Braves would try and manage innings for their rotation, including newcomers Chris Sale and Reynaldo López. Sale has ben magnificent but has thrown just over 150 innings total in the last three seasons due to injury. He’s already thrown 74 2/3 innings through his first 12 starts. Lopez tossed six innings Thursday giving him 69 1/3 for the season. He threw 66 innings in 68 games last season as a reliever.
Going with a six-man rotation means the Braves will be operating with a seven-man bullpen. That shouldn’t be a problem for the bullpen, particularly if the starters continue to pitch deep into games. Atlanta’s bullpen has thrown the third fewest innings to date in the majors. Atlanta’s relievers enter Thursday’s game fifth in the majors with a 3.34 ERA and tied for 12th with a 3.78 FIP. It may be a bigger problem for the team as a whole if the starters are left in too long, but this is something the team has shown little propensity to fret about over the past half-decade.
Runners in scoring position
It wouldn’t be a takeaways column without noting the team’s recent struggles with runners in scoring position. The Braves scored six runs in Thursday’s win, but were 3-for-16 with runners in scoring position and left 10 more on base. During the three games in Baltimore, Atlanta was 3-for-31 with runners in scoring position and left 28 men on base. Some of those were stranded because barrels were outs, but hey, what else is new?
If they aren’t going to hit a bunch of home runs, whether due to drag-related reasons or other stuff, their only other option to score is to sequence hits together. Right now, the Braves are 15th in terms of aggregate batting line, and 14th in RE24, which is a measure of the run expectancy changes their hitters have achieved (it’s like WPA, but doesn’t care about score or inning, just base-out state). However, since May 1, they’re 28th in batting line and 29th in RE24 — it’s not so much that they’re sequencing poorly, but just that they’re not doing anything to capitalize on their relatively few scoring chances, either. (Someone should develop an xRE24, now that’d be something.)
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Baltimore Orioles" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/-jq2nrkw7mJQPW5D43uQzBE6E9Y=/0x0:3600x2400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73406487/2157486630.0.jpg">
The Braves ended their road trip on a good note, but need to do a lot more to keep it going. The Atlanta Braves grabbed a much-needed win Thursday with a 6-3 victory over the Baltimore Orioles. The win snapped a five-game losing streak, the longest skid for the Braves since the 2017 season. They will return home Friday where they will begin a six-game homestand with a three-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Getting back on track
Thursday’s win was a bit of a port in a storm, given a previous stretch of seven losses over their last 10 games for Atlanta. They completed their three-city road trip with a 3-6 record to fall to 36-30 for the season. They will be at least nine games out of first place in the NL East to start the weekend, pending the outcome of the Phillies game in Boston Thursday night.
The Braves still hold the top wild card spot, but at this juncture, it is more about them righting the ship and getting back on track than any specific spot in the standings. Atlanta was 19-9 at the end of April, tops in MLB. They are 17-21 since the start of May and are now 4-7 in June. The lackluster road trip dropped them below .500 on the road at 17-18. They are 19-12 at Truist Park overall, but are just 6-8 at home since May 13.
I wouldn’t say that the NL East race is over, but the Braves need to worry about themselves more than the teams they are chasing, because they’ve been playing poorly enough that it’s not reasonable to expect other teams to take a similar step back. Getting back on track offensively and trying to get back to where they were in April matters more currently than watching the standings on a daily basis in the middle of June.
The offense remains inconsistent, even in terms of inputs. In April, they had four games with a .400+ xwOBA, eight games between .350 and .400, another seven games between .310 and .350, and ten below .310 (with only two of those below .250, and only one below .200). Since then, they’ve only had three games above .400, only five games between .350 and .400, ten between .310 and .350, and a whopping 18 games below .310. When you are putting up a below-average-and-honestly-pretty-terrible set of inputs in half your games over the span of about six weeks, you get the stretch you’ve seen. What makes things worse is that the Braves are also the unluckiest team offensively since May 1, and unlike other cases, they’re unlucky because of their best-hit balls turning into outs at an absurd rate. They probably could’ve stayed as a top-tier contender with good luck instead of horrible luck, even with inconsistent hitting, but instead they’ve been dead in the water in about half their games since May 1 and don’t have any luck to lean on to make things better.
Spencer Schwellenbach takes step forward
Lost in the disappointment of Wednesday’s loss was a good pitching performance from rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach. Schwellenbach was knocked around in his last start at Fenway Park, but held a good Orioles lineup to four hits and two runs over six innings. He struck out three and still struggled to put hitters away at times, but his split-change added a new dimension. He hit 98.0 mph with his fastball and again showed a good assortment of pitches.
His tough third inning started with a sharp double from Cedric Mullins and then a 75 mph flare off the bat of Jorge Mateo. One of the two runs in the inning came on errant throw home by Matt Olson. Schwellenbach got a double play grounder to escape the jam with just two runs scoring. The game could have gotten sideways in that moment, but he was able to keep it together and turned in a career-high six innings. It was a similar effort to his first career outing by xFIP, but not marred by a game-changing blast against him the third time through.
Braves sticking with a six-man rotation for now
It was apparent when neither Hurston Waldrep or Spencer Schwellenbach were sent down after their most recent starts, but Alex Anthopoulos confirmed Wednesday that the team will use a six-man rotation for the time being. Anthopoulos told the AJC’s Justin Toscano that they are trying to be proactive and felt that this would be a good way to get ahead of fatigue. He added that he felt that the Braves’ rotation had been worn down by the time the postseason arrived in each of the past two seasons.
One of the ongoing storylines from the start of the season was how the Braves would try and manage innings for their rotation, including newcomers Chris Sale and Reynaldo López. Sale has ben magnificent but has thrown just over 150 innings total in the last three seasons due to injury. He’s already thrown 74 2/3 innings through his first 12 starts. Lopez tossed six innings Thursday giving him 69 1/3 for the season. He threw 66 innings in 68 games last season as a reliever.
Going with a six-man rotation means the Braves will be operating with a seven-man bullpen. That shouldn’t be a problem for the bullpen, particularly if the starters continue to pitch deep into games. Atlanta’s bullpen has thrown the third fewest innings to date in the majors. Atlanta’s relievers enter Thursday’s game fifth in the majors with a 3.34 ERA and tied for 12th with a 3.78 FIP. It may be a bigger problem for the team as a whole if the starters are left in too long, but this is something the team has shown little propensity to fret about over the past half-decade.
Runners in scoring position
It wouldn’t be a takeaways column without noting the team’s recent struggles with runners in scoring position. The Braves scored six runs in Thursday’s win, but were 3-for-16 with runners in scoring position and left 10 more on base. During the three games in Baltimore, Atlanta was 3-for-31 with runners in scoring position and left 28 men on base. Some of those were stranded because barrels were outs, but hey, what else is new?
If they aren’t going to hit a bunch of home runs, whether due to drag-related reasons or other stuff, their only other option to score is to sequence hits together. Right now, the Braves are 15th in terms of aggregate batting line, and 14th in RE24, which is a measure of the run expectancy changes their hitters have achieved (it’s like WPA, but doesn’t care about score or inning, just base-out state). However, since May 1, they’re 28th in batting line and 29th in RE24 — it’s not so much that they’re sequencing poorly, but just that they’re not doing anything to capitalize on their relatively few scoring chances, either. (Someone should develop an xRE24, now that’d be something.)
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