<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7Bil60Vw8LIHcN85w7VcMgKfQwY=/0x0:4501x3001/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73386474/1583064036.0.jpg">
Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images
After winning both games in Atlanta last month, the Braves will try to do the same in Boston The Braves won their first series in three tries on Sunday, squeaking a 3-1 win past the Oakland Athletics to nab their first victory in June. They now head out on their first three-city road trip of the year, which will take them to Boston, the nation’s capital, and then Baltimore.
The Braves will wake up on Monday with MLB’s eighth-best record, its fifth-highest projected win total, fourth-highest playoff odds, and third-highest championship odds. A lot of these rankings have taken a beating due to the losses of Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr., not to mention a 13-14 May and 1-1 start to June that have reflected some of the team’s worst play since early in 2022, but the Braves are now fifth in team xwOBA. They’re mostly just being killed by what’s become a common refrain and eyeful: barreled balls not getting down for hits, much less going for homers. Specifically:
For the season, the Braves are third-to-last in the rate of barrels becoming hits, and dead last in the rate of barrels becoming homers.
Since May 1, they rank 26th and 29th in those two rates, respectively.
Meanwhile, Braves pitching has allowed the third-highest rate of hits on barrels, and the tenth-highest rate of homers on barrels. As a result, while the Braves have outbarreled opponents 139-90, they have barely more barreled homers (45) than they’ve allowed (43). Given that they’re obviously playing in the same parks and presumably with the same batch or mixed batches of balls from game to game, this is a bizarre occurrence to persist over two months of play.
That has helped add up to a 6.5-game deficit in the NL East, a 4-6 record in their last ten games, and their first sub-.500 month since May 2022.
Still, there have been some bright spots. Marcell Ozuna continues to rake; he’s one of the few Braves not deeply affected by the whole barreled outs thing, currently has a .450 xwOBA (third in MLB, ahead of Shohei Ohtani but behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto), and is 15th in the majors among the 157 batters qualified for the batting title with 2.3 fWAR despite eating every morsel of the DH positional adjustment.
Matt Olson has also seen an interesting turnaround. Dating back to May 12, a span of 89 PAs, Olson has a 166 wRC+. He had managed just an 89 wRC+ in the 155 PAs prior. However, he’s not so much hitting that much better as having his luck even out — he had a .349 xwOBA with a .294 wOBA before May 12, and a .375 xwOBA with a .407 wOBA since
The Braves swept the Red Sox in a two-game set at Truist Park in early May. The Red Sox dropped to 19-18 after those losses; they’ve continued to tread water with an 11-12 record since. Like the Braves, they haven’t really been able to get on a roll; they had a four-game losing streak immediately followed by a four-game winning streak a few weeks ago, but haven’t won three straight games aside from that streak for the last month-plus.
Still, just like the Braves, the Red Sox have some reason for optimism. While their hitting has been mediocre (98 wRC+), 18th in position player fWAR, they still have the majors’ second-best pitching staff. Tanner Houck has been the best pitcher in baseball, Kutter Crawford has also been great, and Justin Slaten has been a dominant multi-inning relief option. The Red Sox actually have the game’s fifth-best BaseRuns record, as they’re in the top third of the league in both context-neutral outcomes collected and (not) yielded. Though they have a much tougher road to the postseason because two of MLB’s dominant teams so far both play in their division, they’ve got a puncher’s chance of returning to the postseason for the first time since 2021 if they can finish third in the AL East on the back of their pitching staying healthy, and something like the Royals cooling off happens. But, it hasn’t happened yet — all the Red Sox could manage to do earlier this weekend was split a four-game set with another .500ish team in the Tigers.
Tuesday, June 4, 7:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Max Fried (11 GS, 66.2 IP, 20.6 K%, 8.0 BB%, 2.97 ERA, 3.34 FIP)
Max Fried will make his 12th start of the season for the Braves in the series opener Tuesday. He’s coming off excellent results in May (2.04 ERA, 3.17 FIP) and logged at least seven innings in four of his five starts while doing basically the same Max Fried thing (3.30 xFIP in May, 3.28 xFIP in April, 3.10 xFIP last year). Fried’s only previous start at Fenway Park came in 2020, without fans, where he allowed two runs over five innings.
Kutter Crawford (12 GS, 68.1 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 3.29 ERA, 3.30 FIP)
Kutter Crawford will face the Braves for the second time this season. Crawford got off to an excellent start, posting a 1.35 ERA, 2.18 FIP, and 3.86 xFIP in April, but found the going tougher in May: 5.14/4.37/4.51. He actually pitched pretty well to start the season’s second month, but the wheels have fallen off a bit lately, as he’s gotten knocked around in two straight starts, with just a 9/4 K/BB ratio, two homers yielded, and 11 total runs charged to him in his last 10 1⁄3 innings of work. After going all of April without allowing a homer, he’s now allowed five in six starts, including one to Jarred Kelenic in Atlanta. Still, his start against Atlanta was an okay one, as that Kelenic two-run homer was the only damage against him with a 6/2 K/BB ratio in six innings of work.
Wednesday, June 5, 1:35 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Spencer Schwellenbach (1 GS, 5.0 IP, 22.7 K%, 4.5 BB%, 5.40 ERA, 4.94 FIP)
Spencer Schwellenbach will stick in the rotation and make his second career start in Wednesday’s series finale. Schwellenbach was promoted from Double-A on May 29 and made his major league debut against the Nationals where he allowed five hits and three runs in five innings. Schwellenbach tossed four scoreless innings to start the game before allowing a three-run home run to Lane Thomas in the fifth as the team showed little urgency in yanking him before he could get victimized by the third time through the order, even after his command completely evaporated and led to things like him hitting a guy trying to bunt in the face.
Nick Pivetta (7 GS, 35.1 IP, 30.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 4.08 ERA, 4.30 FIP)
Nick Pivetta will also face the Braves in a rematch from that earlier series in Atlanta. Pivetta returned from the Injured List on May 8 at Truist Park and allowed five runs, including three homers, in just four innings. Since then, though, he’s had three strong outings and one blow up. One thing that may either work in the Braves’ favor or be really frustrating in this matinee game is that Pivetta’s been incredibly homer-prone — even aside from the three dingers the Braves hit off him, he’s allowed four in his last four starts. He actually has more homers allowed (eight) than walks (seven) on the season.
You know Marcell Ozuna is absolutely salivating about getting to face Pivetta again: in 27 career PAs, he has six homers (and two singles) against him, and collected two of those homers back in May.
<img alt="Atlanta Braves v Boston Red Sox" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/7Bil60Vw8LIHcN85w7VcMgKfQwY=/0x0:4501x3001/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/73386474/1583064036.0.jpg">
Photo By Winslow Townson/Getty Images
After winning both games in Atlanta last month, the Braves will try to do the same in Boston The Braves won their first series in three tries on Sunday, squeaking a 3-1 win past the Oakland Athletics to nab their first victory in June. They now head out on their first three-city road trip of the year, which will take them to Boston, the nation’s capital, and then Baltimore.
The Braves will wake up on Monday with MLB’s eighth-best record, its fifth-highest projected win total, fourth-highest playoff odds, and third-highest championship odds. A lot of these rankings have taken a beating due to the losses of Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr., not to mention a 13-14 May and 1-1 start to June that have reflected some of the team’s worst play since early in 2022, but the Braves are now fifth in team xwOBA. They’re mostly just being killed by what’s become a common refrain and eyeful: barreled balls not getting down for hits, much less going for homers. Specifically:
For the season, the Braves are third-to-last in the rate of barrels becoming hits, and dead last in the rate of barrels becoming homers.
Since May 1, they rank 26th and 29th in those two rates, respectively.
Meanwhile, Braves pitching has allowed the third-highest rate of hits on barrels, and the tenth-highest rate of homers on barrels. As a result, while the Braves have outbarreled opponents 139-90, they have barely more barreled homers (45) than they’ve allowed (43). Given that they’re obviously playing in the same parks and presumably with the same batch or mixed batches of balls from game to game, this is a bizarre occurrence to persist over two months of play.
That has helped add up to a 6.5-game deficit in the NL East, a 4-6 record in their last ten games, and their first sub-.500 month since May 2022.
Still, there have been some bright spots. Marcell Ozuna continues to rake; he’s one of the few Braves not deeply affected by the whole barreled outs thing, currently has a .450 xwOBA (third in MLB, ahead of Shohei Ohtani but behind Aaron Judge and Juan Soto), and is 15th in the majors among the 157 batters qualified for the batting title with 2.3 fWAR despite eating every morsel of the DH positional adjustment.
Matt Olson has also seen an interesting turnaround. Dating back to May 12, a span of 89 PAs, Olson has a 166 wRC+. He had managed just an 89 wRC+ in the 155 PAs prior. However, he’s not so much hitting that much better as having his luck even out — he had a .349 xwOBA with a .294 wOBA before May 12, and a .375 xwOBA with a .407 wOBA since
The Braves swept the Red Sox in a two-game set at Truist Park in early May. The Red Sox dropped to 19-18 after those losses; they’ve continued to tread water with an 11-12 record since. Like the Braves, they haven’t really been able to get on a roll; they had a four-game losing streak immediately followed by a four-game winning streak a few weeks ago, but haven’t won three straight games aside from that streak for the last month-plus.
Still, just like the Braves, the Red Sox have some reason for optimism. While their hitting has been mediocre (98 wRC+), 18th in position player fWAR, they still have the majors’ second-best pitching staff. Tanner Houck has been the best pitcher in baseball, Kutter Crawford has also been great, and Justin Slaten has been a dominant multi-inning relief option. The Red Sox actually have the game’s fifth-best BaseRuns record, as they’re in the top third of the league in both context-neutral outcomes collected and (not) yielded. Though they have a much tougher road to the postseason because two of MLB’s dominant teams so far both play in their division, they’ve got a puncher’s chance of returning to the postseason for the first time since 2021 if they can finish third in the AL East on the back of their pitching staying healthy, and something like the Royals cooling off happens. But, it hasn’t happened yet — all the Red Sox could manage to do earlier this weekend was split a four-game set with another .500ish team in the Tigers.
Tuesday, June 4, 7:10 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Max Fried (11 GS, 66.2 IP, 20.6 K%, 8.0 BB%, 2.97 ERA, 3.34 FIP)
Max Fried will make his 12th start of the season for the Braves in the series opener Tuesday. He’s coming off excellent results in May (2.04 ERA, 3.17 FIP) and logged at least seven innings in four of his five starts while doing basically the same Max Fried thing (3.30 xFIP in May, 3.28 xFIP in April, 3.10 xFIP last year). Fried’s only previous start at Fenway Park came in 2020, without fans, where he allowed two runs over five innings.
Kutter Crawford (12 GS, 68.1 IP, 23.1 K%, 7.7 BB%, 3.29 ERA, 3.30 FIP)
Kutter Crawford will face the Braves for the second time this season. Crawford got off to an excellent start, posting a 1.35 ERA, 2.18 FIP, and 3.86 xFIP in April, but found the going tougher in May: 5.14/4.37/4.51. He actually pitched pretty well to start the season’s second month, but the wheels have fallen off a bit lately, as he’s gotten knocked around in two straight starts, with just a 9/4 K/BB ratio, two homers yielded, and 11 total runs charged to him in his last 10 1⁄3 innings of work. After going all of April without allowing a homer, he’s now allowed five in six starts, including one to Jarred Kelenic in Atlanta. Still, his start against Atlanta was an okay one, as that Kelenic two-run homer was the only damage against him with a 6/2 K/BB ratio in six innings of work.
Wednesday, June 5, 1:35 p.m. ET (Bally Sports South)
Spencer Schwellenbach (1 GS, 5.0 IP, 22.7 K%, 4.5 BB%, 5.40 ERA, 4.94 FIP)
Spencer Schwellenbach will stick in the rotation and make his second career start in Wednesday’s series finale. Schwellenbach was promoted from Double-A on May 29 and made his major league debut against the Nationals where he allowed five hits and three runs in five innings. Schwellenbach tossed four scoreless innings to start the game before allowing a three-run home run to Lane Thomas in the fifth as the team showed little urgency in yanking him before he could get victimized by the third time through the order, even after his command completely evaporated and led to things like him hitting a guy trying to bunt in the face.
Nick Pivetta (7 GS, 35.1 IP, 30.0 K%, 5.0 BB%, 4.08 ERA, 4.30 FIP)
Nick Pivetta will also face the Braves in a rematch from that earlier series in Atlanta. Pivetta returned from the Injured List on May 8 at Truist Park and allowed five runs, including three homers, in just four innings. Since then, though, he’s had three strong outings and one blow up. One thing that may either work in the Braves’ favor or be really frustrating in this matinee game is that Pivetta’s been incredibly homer-prone — even aside from the three dingers the Braves hit off him, he’s allowed four in his last four starts. He actually has more homers allowed (eight) than walks (seven) on the season.
You know Marcell Ozuna is absolutely salivating about getting to face Pivetta again: in 27 career PAs, he has six homers (and two singles) against him, and collected two of those homers back in May.
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