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Widely viewed as the worst division in football, the NFC is wide open. Will the Falcons capitalize on this chance to seal it? Once one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, the NFC South has quickly fallen behind. With 41 losses combined between its teams in 2023, the NFC South had the worst win percentage (.397) among all divisions for last season.
The division was at its peak in the 2010s, with the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers rotating as division leaders from year to year. Bitter rivalries and top-notch talent made NFC South games a must-watch. But with the retirements of Drew Brees and later Tom Brady, as well as the departures of Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and other franchise-caliber players, has had the teams in this division struggling to establish consistency ever since. Teams are either in full rebuilds (Panthers), or somewhere between rebuilding and contending (Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons), a place no franchise really wants to be.
The NFC South has rarely been more wide open than it is now, and it’s urging one of these teams to take control. With the quarterback problem seemingly solved for Atlanta, the Falcons are in prime position to capitalize on this opportunity, potentially for years to come. But first, they have to prove that the offseason hype is real, and establish themselves as true contenders.
How have the NFC South contenders changed in 2024?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Expected to contend
On paper, it seems like the division race could come down to the Falcons and Buccaneers. While the Bucs didn’t make a big splash in terms of offseason moves, they did trade Carlton Davis III to the Lions, receiving a third round pick which they used on wide receiver Jalen McMillan from Washington. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still performing at a high level, it’s hard to see an outsized impact for McMillan in this offense as a rookie.
Where they did improve, however, was beefing up their offensive line, drafting Duke center Graham Barton and then signing guards Sua Opeta, and Ben Bredeson in free agency. Given that they are confident in Baker Mayfield, agreeing to a three year deal with him in March, it made sense for them to invest in protecting him. Barring a regression from Mayfield himself, I think we’ll see the same Bucs team come fall, potentially seeing slight increases in how much time Mayfield has to throw if this line is up to snuff. This could put them at 9-8 again, or maybe a slight improvement to 10-7.
New Orleans Saints: Set to fall short
More of the same can be said for the Saints, except their quarterback situation is a little more dire. While Carr didn’t have a bad year statistically, he couldn’t seem to get this team over the hump in his first year in New Orleans. The Saints also drafted Spencer Rattler, the once-regarded first round talent, in the fifth round, so it’s clear the Saints are already thinking post-Carr. If Carr struggles early a quarterback change could legitimately happen.
Defense could be the bright spot for this Saints team. They drafted 2 time All-SEC Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry (may be the greatest name I’ve ever heard!) in the second round, pairing him with Pro Bowl corner Marshon Lattimore. They also notably signed former second overall pick Chase Young, who was a standout rookie but suffered from injuries during his time in Washington, and didn’t make a huge impact in his time in San Francisco. Now joining veteran Cameron Jordan on the Saints defensive line, this could serve as a career revival for Young, learning from one of the position’s best players.
I think it depends on how the Saints start out, because if this team starts spiraling early, they’ll have to focus on solving the many problems that have cropped up to put them in a bad situation, which I think is likely to happen with a more difficult first half schedule similar to Atlanta. I think defense will be what this team leans on, but it’ll be hard to rely on that side for 17 games, especially facing some potentially powerhouse offenses, which could lead to what I think would be a 6-11 or 7-10 record for New Orleans. Ultimately, I expect them to fall short of contending for the divisional crown.
Carolina Panthers: Should be improved
The Panthers, meanwhile, made a big splash this offseason after their league-worst 2-15 record. They most notably acquired Diontae Johnson from the Steelers, giving Bryce Young a sure handed veteran pass catcher who could also serve as a mentor to second year receiver Jonathan Mingo. They also signed guard Robert Hunt, guard Damien Lewis, and offensive tackle Yosh Nijman for more protection and o-line depth.
They made several key defensive acquisitions as well, signing former Pro Bowl linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and linebacker D.J. Wonnum. After losing Brian Burns to the Giants in free agency, they are hoping that these signings fill that void. I’m most intrigued by their improvements to the secondary, signing cornerback Dane Jackson and especially safety Jordan Fuller. Fuller, who played a huge role in the Rams Super Bowl run, matched his career high in interceptions (3) last year, and had a career high in pass deflections (8). Dane Jackson looks to have a bigger role with the Panthers after having decent success in his time with the Bills. Panthers general manager Dan Morgan was the director of player personnel with the Bills when they drafted Jackson back in 2020, and while Jackson was not heavily utilized as a starter, Morgan obviously sees something in Jackson that could add greatly to this secondary.
With all these moves, and the hiring of Dave Canales as head coach, Carolina could be a team to watch in 2024. Canales’ coaching and offensive schemes proved crucial in revitalizing both Geno Smith’s and Baker Mayfield’s careers in back-to-back years, and we could very well see a complete turnaround for Bryce Young in 2024 if he can continue the trend. If Young finds his rhythm, and their defense is playing lights out, this Panthers team is capable of not only improving on their 2-15 2023 season, but maybe even competing for the division. While I don’t think they’ll be giving the Falcons a run for their money, I don’t think you can write this team off just yet like I’ve seen many do already.
So where does that leave the Falcons? While the division winner is anyone’s guess here in May, Atlanta is in prime position to regain a foothold in the NFC South. They just have to focus on not falling behind early.
We’ll see what each of these teams are working with within the first six weeks, as the Falcons host the Saints and Buccaneers in Weeks 4 and 5, and travel to Carolina right after in Week 6. Going 3-0 in these games would obviously be ideal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons lose the first matchup against the Saints or the Bucs after facing tough teams like the Eagles and Chiefs in back to back weeks.
We should know how our Falcons stand within the division after week 8, which is our second matchup against the Bucs. At week 10, this team will basically be wrapping up division play having already played the Saints and Bucs twice, with our second Panthers matchup being in week 18 at home. Winning or at least splitting both of the Bucs matchups is key to have a chance at winning the South, and dominating the Saints and Panthers should give the Falcons an edge in any tiebreakers with the Bucs. A 5-1 or 4-2 division record would be enough to win the South again for the first time in eight years.
It has been a nail biter the past two seasons, and I think that trend will continue in 2024. It’s only a matter of time before one of these teams steals enough momentum to command this division. The only question is, will the Falcons seize this opportunity to establish themselves as the favorite in the NFC South for years to come after a productive offseason?
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Widely viewed as the worst division in football, the NFC is wide open. Will the Falcons capitalize on this chance to seal it? Once one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL, the NFC South has quickly fallen behind. With 41 losses combined between its teams in 2023, the NFC South had the worst win percentage (.397) among all divisions for last season.
The division was at its peak in the 2010s, with the Falcons, Saints, and Panthers rotating as division leaders from year to year. Bitter rivalries and top-notch talent made NFC South games a must-watch. But with the retirements of Drew Brees and later Tom Brady, as well as the departures of Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, and other franchise-caliber players, has had the teams in this division struggling to establish consistency ever since. Teams are either in full rebuilds (Panthers), or somewhere between rebuilding and contending (Saints, Buccaneers, and Falcons), a place no franchise really wants to be.
The NFC South has rarely been more wide open than it is now, and it’s urging one of these teams to take control. With the quarterback problem seemingly solved for Atlanta, the Falcons are in prime position to capitalize on this opportunity, potentially for years to come. But first, they have to prove that the offseason hype is real, and establish themselves as true contenders.
How have the NFC South contenders changed in 2024?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Expected to contend
On paper, it seems like the division race could come down to the Falcons and Buccaneers. While the Bucs didn’t make a big splash in terms of offseason moves, they did trade Carlton Davis III to the Lions, receiving a third round pick which they used on wide receiver Jalen McMillan from Washington. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still performing at a high level, it’s hard to see an outsized impact for McMillan in this offense as a rookie.
Where they did improve, however, was beefing up their offensive line, drafting Duke center Graham Barton and then signing guards Sua Opeta, and Ben Bredeson in free agency. Given that they are confident in Baker Mayfield, agreeing to a three year deal with him in March, it made sense for them to invest in protecting him. Barring a regression from Mayfield himself, I think we’ll see the same Bucs team come fall, potentially seeing slight increases in how much time Mayfield has to throw if this line is up to snuff. This could put them at 9-8 again, or maybe a slight improvement to 10-7.
New Orleans Saints: Set to fall short
More of the same can be said for the Saints, except their quarterback situation is a little more dire. While Carr didn’t have a bad year statistically, he couldn’t seem to get this team over the hump in his first year in New Orleans. The Saints also drafted Spencer Rattler, the once-regarded first round talent, in the fifth round, so it’s clear the Saints are already thinking post-Carr. If Carr struggles early a quarterback change could legitimately happen.
Defense could be the bright spot for this Saints team. They drafted 2 time All-SEC Cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry (may be the greatest name I’ve ever heard!) in the second round, pairing him with Pro Bowl corner Marshon Lattimore. They also notably signed former second overall pick Chase Young, who was a standout rookie but suffered from injuries during his time in Washington, and didn’t make a huge impact in his time in San Francisco. Now joining veteran Cameron Jordan on the Saints defensive line, this could serve as a career revival for Young, learning from one of the position’s best players.
I think it depends on how the Saints start out, because if this team starts spiraling early, they’ll have to focus on solving the many problems that have cropped up to put them in a bad situation, which I think is likely to happen with a more difficult first half schedule similar to Atlanta. I think defense will be what this team leans on, but it’ll be hard to rely on that side for 17 games, especially facing some potentially powerhouse offenses, which could lead to what I think would be a 6-11 or 7-10 record for New Orleans. Ultimately, I expect them to fall short of contending for the divisional crown.
Carolina Panthers: Should be improved
The Panthers, meanwhile, made a big splash this offseason after their league-worst 2-15 record. They most notably acquired Diontae Johnson from the Steelers, giving Bryce Young a sure handed veteran pass catcher who could also serve as a mentor to second year receiver Jonathan Mingo. They also signed guard Robert Hunt, guard Damien Lewis, and offensive tackle Yosh Nijman for more protection and o-line depth.
They made several key defensive acquisitions as well, signing former Pro Bowl linebacker Jadeveon Clowney and linebacker D.J. Wonnum. After losing Brian Burns to the Giants in free agency, they are hoping that these signings fill that void. I’m most intrigued by their improvements to the secondary, signing cornerback Dane Jackson and especially safety Jordan Fuller. Fuller, who played a huge role in the Rams Super Bowl run, matched his career high in interceptions (3) last year, and had a career high in pass deflections (8). Dane Jackson looks to have a bigger role with the Panthers after having decent success in his time with the Bills. Panthers general manager Dan Morgan was the director of player personnel with the Bills when they drafted Jackson back in 2020, and while Jackson was not heavily utilized as a starter, Morgan obviously sees something in Jackson that could add greatly to this secondary.
With all these moves, and the hiring of Dave Canales as head coach, Carolina could be a team to watch in 2024. Canales’ coaching and offensive schemes proved crucial in revitalizing both Geno Smith’s and Baker Mayfield’s careers in back-to-back years, and we could very well see a complete turnaround for Bryce Young in 2024 if he can continue the trend. If Young finds his rhythm, and their defense is playing lights out, this Panthers team is capable of not only improving on their 2-15 2023 season, but maybe even competing for the division. While I don’t think they’ll be giving the Falcons a run for their money, I don’t think you can write this team off just yet like I’ve seen many do already.
So where does that leave the Falcons? While the division winner is anyone’s guess here in May, Atlanta is in prime position to regain a foothold in the NFC South. They just have to focus on not falling behind early.
We’ll see what each of these teams are working with within the first six weeks, as the Falcons host the Saints and Buccaneers in Weeks 4 and 5, and travel to Carolina right after in Week 6. Going 3-0 in these games would obviously be ideal, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Falcons lose the first matchup against the Saints or the Bucs after facing tough teams like the Eagles and Chiefs in back to back weeks.
We should know how our Falcons stand within the division after week 8, which is our second matchup against the Bucs. At week 10, this team will basically be wrapping up division play having already played the Saints and Bucs twice, with our second Panthers matchup being in week 18 at home. Winning or at least splitting both of the Bucs matchups is key to have a chance at winning the South, and dominating the Saints and Panthers should give the Falcons an edge in any tiebreakers with the Bucs. A 5-1 or 4-2 division record would be enough to win the South again for the first time in eight years.
It has been a nail biter the past two seasons, and I think that trend will continue in 2024. It’s only a matter of time before one of these teams steals enough momentum to command this division. The only question is, will the Falcons seize this opportunity to establish themselves as the favorite in the NFC South for years to come after a productive offseason?
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